Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeAthletic Club 1:3 Sevilla
Athletic Club were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. Sevilla won 3–1. The biggest difference was Sevilla's attack: 1.26 xG against 0.72 projected (+0.54).
Goals
- 15' Oso Sevilla · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
- 51' Chidera Ejuke Sevilla · 0.10 xG chance 0–2
- 57' Isaac Romero Sevilla · 0.09 xG chance 0–3
- 70' Aitor Paredes Athletic Club · 0.30 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- Athletic Club
- 53%
- Draw
- 31%
- Sevilla
- 16% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sevilla produced 0.54 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 7
- On target
- 8
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.65
- 0.36
- Set-piece xG
- 0.60
- 0.05
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.25 for Athletic Club and 0.41 for Sevilla.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 1.66 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Athletic Club
- Sevilla
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.14 xG created 1.10 xGA
- L 0.80 created, 2.09 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- W 0.97 created, 0.49 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- L 0.93 created, 1.19 conceded against Valencia
- L 0.82 created, 0.76 conceded against Espanyol
- D 2.49 created, 0.15 conceded against Celta Vigo
- L 0.81 created, 1.90 conceded against Real Madrid
1.30 xG created 1.01 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +6.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +5.9% | Lost |
| Athletic Club at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 52.9% | 55.3% | −2.4 pp | 1.89 |
| Draw | 31.1% | 27.1% | +4.0 pp | 3.21 |
| Sevilla | 16.0% | 17.6% | −1.6 pp | 6.27 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club to score | 78.6% | 78.3% | +0.2 pp | 1.27 |
| Athletic Club not to score | 21.4% | 21.7% | −0.2 pp | 4.66 |
| Sevilla to score | 54.0% | 53.7% | +0.3 pp | 1.85 |
| Sevilla not to score | 46.0% | 46.3% | −0.3 pp | 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 46.7% | −2.4 pp | 2.26 |
| Both teams not to score | 55.8% | 53.3% | +2.4 pp | 1.79 |
| Athletic Club 2+ goals | 42.5% | 48.5% | −6.0 pp | 2.35 |
| Athletic Club at most 1 goal | 57.5% | 51.5% | +6.0 pp | 1.74 |
| Sevilla 2+ goals | 15.4% | 18.9% | −3.6 pp | 6.51 |
| Sevilla at most 1 goal | 84.6% | 81.1% | +3.6 pp | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | 68.2% | −1.1 pp | 1.49 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 31.8% | +1.1 pp | 3.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 43.1% | −6.9 pp | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 56.9% | +6.9 pp | 1.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Sevilla sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.