Thursday, 27/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeBarcelona 2:0 Athletic Club
Barcelona were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Barcelona's attack: 4.23 xG against 1.53 projected (+2.70). Athletic Club produced 0.25 xG against 0.93 projected (−0.68).
Goals
- 37' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.66 xG chance 1–0
- 82' Fermín López Barcelona · 1.00 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Barcelona
- 50% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Athletic Club
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Barcelona produced 2.70 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 5
- On target
- 10
- 0
- Inside the box
- 18
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 3.31
- 0.21
- Set-piece xG
- 0.61
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.92 for Barcelona.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 4.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Barcelona
- Athletic Club
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.65 xG created 0.92 xGA
1.23 xG created 0.96 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona not to score | 11.00 | +108.1% | Lost |
| Barcelona at most 1 goal | 3.25 | +72.9% | Lost |
| Athletic Club to win | 8.00 | +58.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +57.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +49.4% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +38.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 50.2% | 70.4% | −20.2 pp | 1.99 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 17.9% | +12.1 pp | 3.34 |
| Athletic Club | 19.8% | 11.7% | +8.1 pp | 5.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona to score | 81.1% | 91.3% | −10.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Barcelona not to score | 18.9% | 8.7% | +10.2 pp | 5.29 |
| Athletic Club to score | 63.6% | 58.9% | +4.7 pp | 1.57 |
| Athletic Club not to score | 36.4% | 41.1% | −4.7 pp | 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 53.3% | −0.0 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.7% | 46.7% | +0.0 pp | 2.14 |
| Barcelona 2+ goals | 46.8% | 70.9% | −24.1 pp | 2.14 |
| Barcelona at most 1 goal | 53.2% | 29.1% | +24.1 pp | 1.88 |
| Athletic Club 2+ goals | 23.5% | 23.4% | +0.1 pp | 4.26 |
| Athletic Club at most 1 goal | 76.5% | 76.6% | −0.1 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | 82.8% | −8.0 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 17.2% | +8.0 pp | 3.97 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 65.6% | −19.9 pp | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 34.4% | +19.9 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Barcelona sample
- 20 matches
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 days before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.