xgEdge

Expected goals

Athletic Club expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

La Liga · after 6 matches · updated 4 Oct

Athletic Club's attacking and defensive expected goals in La Liga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Athletic Club xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.64 xG per match
#5/20
Attack (xG per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Barcelona 4.07
#2 Real Madrid 2.64
#3 Villarreal 2.38
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.72
#5 Athletic Club 1.64
#6 Real Betis 1.52
#7 Racing de Santander 1.45
#8 Levante UD 1.33
#9 Deportivo Alavés 1.28
#10 Rayo Vallecano 1.27
#11 Espanyol 1.24
#12 Osasuna 1.24
#13 Elche 1.24
#14 Real Sociedad 1.19
#15 Celta Vigo 1.01
#16 Sevilla 0.99
#17 Deportivo La Coruña 0.97
#18 Valencia 0.87
#19 Málaga 0.84
#20 Getafe 0.69
League avg
1.48
Total
9.82 6 matches
Defence
1.36 xGA per match
#10/20
Defence (xGA per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Atlético Madrid 1.02
#2 Real Madrid 1.09
#3 Barcelona 1.09
#4 Deportivo La Coruña 1.15
#5 Deportivo Alavés 1.19
#6 Villarreal 1.25
#7 Celta Vigo 1.26
#8 Getafe 1.27
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Athletic Club 1.36
#11 Espanyol 1.36
#12 Osasuna 1.39
#13 Valencia 1.64
#14 Málaga 1.66
#15 Real Sociedad 1.68
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.76
#17 Real Betis 1.86
#18 Elche 2.01
#19 Levante UD 2.08
#20 Racing de Santander 2.20
League avg
1.48
Total
8.15 6 matches
xG difference
+0.28 xGD per match
#5/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Barcelona +2.99
#2 Real Madrid +1.55
#3 Villarreal +1.12
#4 Atlético Madrid +0.70
#5 Athletic Club +0.28
#6 Deportivo Alavés +0.09
#7 Espanyol -0.12
#8 Osasuna -0.15
#9 Deportivo La Coruña -0.18
#10 Celta Vigo -0.26
#11 Sevilla -0.31
#12 Real Betis -0.34
#13 Rayo Vallecano -0.50
#14 Real Sociedad -0.50
#15 Getafe -0.57
#16 Levante UD -0.75
#17 Racing de Santander -0.76
#18 Elche -0.77
#19 Valencia -0.78
#20 Málaga -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
+1.67 6 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.82 xPts per match
#5/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Barcelona 2.66
#2 Real Madrid 2.27
#3 Villarreal 1.92
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.86
#5 Athletic Club 1.82
#6 Deportivo Alavés 1.44
#7 Osasuna 1.36
#8 Espanyol 1.35
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Celta Vigo 1.28
#11 Real Betis 1.20
#12 Real Sociedad 1.17
#13 Elche 1.14
#14 Racing de Santander 1.14
#15 Deportivo La Coruña 1.14
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.12
#17 Levante UD 1.04
#18 Getafe 0.92
#19 Valencia 0.91
#20 Málaga 0.86
League avg
1.39
Total
10.92 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 6 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Athletic Club's underlying numbers are among the best in La Liga. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.28 per match, driven by high shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 7 goals are 2.82 below 9.82 xG, while 8 points are 2.92 below 10.92 xPts. After only 6 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.05 xG from penalties
7 9.82 -2.82 scored 2.82 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
6 8.15 -2.15 conceded 2.15 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 10.92 -2.92 2.92 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Athletic Club are 2.82 goals below their xG after 6 matches.

Goals
7
xG
9.82
Gap
-2.82
Sat 22/08 Thu 27/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.37 -0.62 -1.40 +0.19 -1.20 -2.82 -0.37 -0.25 -0.78 +1.59 -1.39 -1.62 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Athletic Club: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Sevilla 1 1.37 -0.37 -0.37
Thu 27/08 Barcelona 0 0.25 -0.25 -0.62
Sun 30/08 Celta Vigo 2 2.78 -0.78 -1.40
Sat 05/09 Atlético Madrid 3 1.41 +1.59 +0.19
Sat 12/09 Elche 1 2.39 -1.39 -1.20
Sat 19/09 Deportivo Alavés 0 1.62 -1.62 -2.82

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Athletic Club xG trend

Current form +0.49 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 6 matches. The only negative was against Barcelona on Thu 27/08 (-3.67).

npxG · last 6
1.46
npxGA · last 6
0.98
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.84 Sat 22/08 -3.67 Thu 27/08 +2.07 Sun 30/08 +0.49 Sat 05/09 +2.37 Sat 12/09 +0.81 Sat 19/09 +0.48 season avg
Athletic Club: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Sevilla 1.25 0.41 +0.84 +0.84
Thu 27/08 Barcelona 0.25 3.92 -3.67 -1.42
Sun 30/08 Celta Vigo 2.64 0.57 +2.07 -0.25
Sat 05/09 Atlético Madrid 1.35 0.86 +0.49 -0.07
Sat 12/09 Elche 2.42 0.05 +2.37 +0.42
Sat 19/09 Deportivo Alavés 0.86 0.05 +0.81 +0.48

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.46 npxG and 0.98 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 4 hardest of 20 in La Liga
+0.12 xG vs league average
Over 6 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 20 in La Liga
+0.16 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.12 xG vs league average · over 6 matches · number 4 hardest of 20

  1. Deportivo Alavés Home +0.10
  2. Elche Home −0.26
  3. Atlético Madrid Home +0.34
  4. Celta Vigo Away −0.36
  5. Barcelona Away +1.00
  6. Sevilla Home −0.07

Last 5

+0.16 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 20

  1. Deportivo Alavés Home +0.10
  2. Elche Home −0.26
  3. Atlético Madrid Home +0.34
  4. Celta Vigo Away −0.36
  5. Barcelona Away +1.00

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Athletic Club shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. Athletic Club take 15.7 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #6 in La Liga for volume and #11 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 23% of their npxG (league 20%).

Attack

Shot volume
15.7 shots per match
#6/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 21.4
#2 Real Madrid 18.9
#3 Real Betis 17.4
#4 Atlético Madrid 16.9
#5 Villarreal 16.0
#6 Athletic Club 15.7
#7 Espanyol 13.6
=8 Rayo Vallecano 13.4
=8 Real Sociedad 13.4
#10 Deportivo Alavés 12.4
#11 Getafe 11.7
#12 Elche 11.3
#13 Sevilla 11.0
#14 Levante UD 10.7
#15 Valencia 10.6
=16 Celta Vigo 10.3
=16 Racing de Santander 10.3
#18 Deportivo La Coruña 10.1
#19 Málaga 10.0
#20 Osasuna 9.4
League avg
13.2
Total
94 shots from 6 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#11/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Barcelona 0.16
#2 Levante UD 0.13
#3 Real Madrid 0.13
#4 Villarreal 0.13
#5 Deportivo Alavés 0.11
#6 Racing de Santander 0.10
#7 Elche 0.10
#8 Deportivo La Coruña 0.10
#9 Osasuna 0.10
#10 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#11 Athletic Club 0.09
#12 Espanyol 0.09
#13 Real Betis 0.09
#14 Atlético Madrid 0.09
#15 Valencia 0.08
#16 Celta Vigo 0.08
#17 Real Sociedad 0.08
#18 Sevilla 0.07
#19 Málaga 0.06
#20 Getafe 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
8.77 npxG from 94 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.5 shots per match
#2/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 7.3
#2 Athletic Club 9.5
#3 Atlético Madrid 9.7
#4 Sevilla 11.3
#5 Espanyol 12.0
#6 Deportivo Alavés 12.1
#7 Celta Vigo 12.4
=8 Osasuna 12.7
=8 Real Madrid 12.7
=10 Deportivo La Coruña 12.9
=10 Villarreal 12.9
#12 Getafe 13.3
#13 Málaga 14.9
#14 Levante UD 15.2
=15 Elche 15.3
=15 Valencia 15.3
#17 Real Betis 15.7
#18 Real Sociedad 15.9
#19 Rayo Vallecano 16.6
#20 Racing de Santander 16.7
League avg
13.2
Total
57 shots allowed from 6 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#11/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Deportivo Alavés 0.07
#2 Getafe 0.07
#3 Real Madrid 0.08
#4 Atlético Madrid 0.08
#5 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#6 Deportivo La Coruña 0.09
#7 Villarreal 0.09
#8 Celta Vigo 0.09
#9 Real Sociedad 0.10
#10 Málaga 0.10
#11 Athletic Club 0.10
#12 Valencia 0.10
#13 Racing de Santander 0.11
#14 Espanyol 0.11
#15 Sevilla 0.11
#16 Osasuna 0.11
#17 Real Betis 0.12
#18 Levante UD 0.12
#19 Elche 0.12
#20 Barcelona 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
5.86 npxGA from 57 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 57 of 94 shots over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

68% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 39 of 57 shots allowed over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 2.0 of 8.7 npxG over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

80% open play · 20% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 1.1 of 5.8 npxG allowed over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Athletic Club home and away xG

Athletic Club per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 4 2
xG / match 1.70 1.52
xGA / match 0.79 2.49
xGD / match +0.91 -0.98
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.06 1.33

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Athletic Club match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
4
xG / match
1.70
xGA / match
0.79
xGD / match
+0.91
Points
5 of 12
  1. Sat 19/09 Deportivo Alavés H xG 1.62 P xGA 0.05 xGD +1.57
  2. Sat 12/09 Elche H xG 2.39 xGA 0.84 P xGD +1.55
  3. Sat 05/09 Atlético Madrid H xG 1.41 xGA 1.02 xGD +0.39
  4. Sat 22/08 Sevilla H xG 1.37 xGA 1.26 P xGD +0.11

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Athletic Club in La Liga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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