Celta Vigo 1:2 Osasuna: xG & match report · La Liga

Thursday, 27/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Celta Vigo Home 0.14 xG · 4 shots

Osasuna Away 2.60 xG · 13 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Celta Vigo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Osasuna won 2–1. The biggest difference was Osasuna's attack: 2.60 xG against 0.94 projected (+1.66). Celta Vigo produced 0.14 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.98).

Goals

14' Iago Aspas Celta Vigo · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
54' Kike Barja Osasuna · 0.51 xG chance 1–1
64' Ante Budimir (pen.) Osasuna · 0.82 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Celta Vigo: 38%
Draw: 35%
Osasuna: 27% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Celta Vigo 1.12 0.14 -0.98

Osasuna 0.94 2.60 +1.66

Osasuna produced 1.66 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Celta Vigo Osasuna

Shots: 4; 13
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 1; 8
xG per shot: 0.03; 0.21
Open play xG: 0.12; 1.70
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.17
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.13 for Celta Vigo and 1.89 for Osasuna.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

17 shots · 2.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Celta Vigo
Osasuna
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Celta Vigo

0.96 xG created 1.55 xGA

W 1.05 created, 1.71 conceded against Elche
W 0.13 created, 2.18 conceded against Atlético Madrid
L 2.18 created, 1.52 conceded against Levante UD
D 0.15 created, 2.49 conceded against Athletic Club
W 1.59 created, 0.80 conceded against Sevilla
D 0.66 created, 0.58 conceded against Valencia

Osasuna

1.11 xG created 1.39 xGA

L 0.80 created, 1.29 conceded against Barcelona
L 0.63 created, 3.22 conceded against Levante UD
L 2.30 created, 1.56 conceded against Atlético Madrid
L 1.72 created, 0.79 conceded against Espanyol
L 0.51 created, 0.21 conceded against Getafe
D 0.70 created, 1.28 conceded against Levante UD

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Celta Vigo: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Celta Vigo against Osasuna before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Celta Vigo not to score	4.00	+17.3%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+15.4%	Lost
Celta Vigo at most 1 goal	1.67	+14.4%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	+13.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.20	+9.9%	Lost
Osasuna to win	4.00	+9.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Celta Vigo	37.6%	47.5%	−9.9 pp	2.66
Draw	35.0%	28.8%	+6.2 pp	2.86
Osasuna	27.4%	23.7%	+3.7 pp	3.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score	70.7%	76.6%	−5.9 pp	1.42
Celta Vigo not to score	29.3%	23.4%	+5.9 pp	3.41
Osasuna to score	64.1%	62.5%	+1.6 pp	1.56
Osasuna not to score	35.9%	37.5%	−1.6 pp	2.79
Both teams to score	47.3%	48.0%	−0.7 pp	2.11
Both teams not to score	52.7%	52.0%	+0.7 pp	1.90
Celta Vigo 2+ goals	31.3%	44.3%	−12.9 pp	3.19
Celta Vigo at most 1 goal	68.7%	55.7%	+12.9 pp	1.46
Osasuna 2+ goals	24.0%	26.9%	−2.9 pp	4.17
Osasuna at most 1 goal	76.0%	73.1%	+2.9 pp	1.32
Over 1.5 goals	65.6%	70.1%	−4.5 pp	1.52
Under 1.5 goals	34.4%	29.9%	+4.5 pp	2.91
Over 2.5 goals	34.2%	45.1%	−10.9 pp	2.92
Under 2.5 goals	65.8%	54.9%	+10.9 pp	1.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Celta Vigo sample: 20 matches
Osasuna sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 days before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.