Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 19:30
Full timeValencia 0:0 Celta Vigo
Valencia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Valencia's attack: 0.58 xG against 1.38 projected (−0.80).
The model against the result
- Valencia
- 49%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Celta Vigo
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Valencia produced 0.80 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 7
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 4
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.52
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.05
- 0.18
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.58 for Valencia and 0.67 for Celta Vigo.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
15 shots · 1.26 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Valencia
- Celta Vigo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.39 xGA
- W 1.40 created, 1.56 conceded against Girona FC
- L 1.09 created, 2.04 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- W 1.19 created, 0.93 conceded against Athletic Club
- D 0.76 created, 1.16 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- W 1.67 created, 1.15 conceded against Real Sociedad
- W 1.48 created, 1.52 conceded against Barcelona
1.18 xG created 1.77 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 2.35 | +14.5% | Lost |
| Celta Vigo not to score | 2.63 | +7.3% | Won |
| Celta Vigo at most 1 goal | 1.33 | +7.0% | Won |
| Valencia 2+ goals | 2.50 | +3.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +2.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.20 | +1.6% | Won |
| Valencia to score | 1.30 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 48.7% | 40.5% | +8.2 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 31.8% | 29.7% | +2.0 pp | 3.15 |
| Celta Vigo | 19.5% | 29.7% | −10.2 pp | 5.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to score | 77.8% | 72.3% | +5.4 pp | 1.29 |
| Valencia not to score | 22.2% | 27.7% | −5.4 pp | 4.50 |
| Celta Vigo to score | 59.1% | 64.5% | −5.4 pp | 1.69 |
| Celta Vigo not to score | 40.9% | 35.5% | +5.4 pp | 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 50.0% | −2.1 pp | 2.09 |
| Both teams not to score | 52.1% | 50.0% | +2.1 pp | 1.92 |
| Valencia 2+ goals | 41.4% | 37.5% | +3.9 pp | 2.42 |
| Valencia at most 1 goal | 58.6% | 62.5% | −3.9 pp | 1.71 |
| Celta Vigo 2+ goals | 19.7% | 29.1% | −9.4 pp | 5.08 |
| Celta Vigo at most 1 goal | 80.3% | 70.9% | +9.4 pp | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | 68.2% | +1.0 pp | 1.45 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 31.8% | −1.0 pp | 3.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 43.1% | −4.5 pp | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 56.9% | +4.5 pp | 1.63 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Valencia sample
- 20 matches
- Celta Vigo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.