Deportivo Alavés 5:2 Osasuna: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · La Liga

Deportivo Alavés Home 1.20 xG · 12 shots

Osasuna Away 1.64 xG · 7 shots

52 The result went against the chances

Deportivo Alavés were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Osasuna's attack: 1.64 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.72).

Goals

27' Lucas Boyé Deportivo Alavés · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
36' Mariano Díaz Deportivo Alavés · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
46' Ante Budimir Osasuna · 0.17 xG chance 2–1
51' Lucas Boyé Deportivo Alavés · 0.01 xG chance 3–1
64' Ante Budimir (pen.) Osasuna · 0.82 xG chance 3–2
68' Lucas Boyé Deportivo Alavés · 0.24 xG chance 4–2
90' Pablo Ibáñez Deportivo Alavés · 0.44 xG chance 5–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Deportivo Alavés: 45% What happened
Draw: 32%
Osasuna: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Deportivo Alavés 1.35 1.20 -0.15

Osasuna 0.92 1.64 +0.72

Osasuna produced 0.72 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Deportivo Alavés Osasuna

Shots: 12; 7
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.26
Open play xG: 1.25; 0.88
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.13
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.41 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.04 for Osasuna.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 3.22 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Deportivo Alavés

1.41 xG created 0.80 xGA

W 0.72 created, 0.60 conceded against Barcelona
W 1.46 created, 0.45 conceded against Real Oviedo
L 1.63 created, 1.34 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 1.93 created, 0.24 conceded against Getafe
D 2.00 created, 0.42 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 0.73 created, 1.74 conceded against Villarreal

Osasuna

1.59 xG created 0.78 xGA

L 2.30 created, 1.56 conceded against Atlético Madrid
L 1.72 created, 0.79 conceded against Espanyol
L 0.51 created, 0.21 conceded against Getafe
D 0.70 created, 1.28 conceded against Levante UD
W 2.60 created, 0.14 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 1.68 created, 0.68 conceded against Getafe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Deportivo Alavés: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Deportivo Alavés against Osasuna before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Deportivo Alavés to win	2.30	+4.1%	Won
Both teams to score	2.05	+3.5%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+2.0%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.50	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Deportivo Alavés	45.3%	41.3%	+3.9 pp	2.21
Draw	32.2%	30.7%	+1.6 pp	3.10
Osasuna	22.5%	28.0%	−5.5 pp	4.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.5%	45.3%	+5.2 pp	1.98
Both teams not to score	49.5%	54.7%	−5.2 pp	2.02
Over 1.5 goals	70.6%	65.6%	+5.1 pp	1.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.4%	34.4%	−5.1 pp	3.41
Over 2.5 goals	40.2%	38.0%	+2.2 pp	2.48
Under 2.5 goals	59.8%	62.0%	−2.2 pp	1.67

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Deportivo Alavés sample: 20 matches
Osasuna sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.