Friday, 28/08/2026 at 21:30
Full timeDeportivo Alavés 1:0 Villarreal
Deportivo Alavés were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Deportivo Alavés's attack: 0.73 xG against 1.56 projected (−0.83). Villarreal produced 1.74 xG against 0.93 projected (+0.81).
Goals
- 31' Lucas Boyé Deportivo Alavés · 0.44 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Deportivo Alavés
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Villarreal
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Deportivo Alavés produced 0.83 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 18
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 4
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.55
- 0.80
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.48
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.81 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.28 for Villarreal.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.07 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Deportivo Alavés
- Villarreal
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.63 xG created 0.74 xGA
1.61 xG created 1.32 xGA
- D 1.12 created, 1.74 conceded against Mallorca
- L 0.83 created, 0.87 conceded against Sevilla
- L 0.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- W 2.48 created, 1.16 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- D 0.67 created, 1.87 conceded against Racing de Santander
- D 3.60 created, 0.78 conceded against Atlético Madrid
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés to win | 3.20 | +62.8% | Won |
| Villarreal not to score | 4.00 | +46.0% | Won |
| Villarreal at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +32.2% | Won |
| Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals | 2.63 | +25.0% | Lost |
| Deportivo Alavés to score | 1.33 | +8.7% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +7.5% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +3.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés | 50.9% | 29.7% | +21.2 pp | 1.97 |
| Draw | 29.7% | 27.1% | +2.5 pp | 3.37 |
| Villarreal | 19.4% | 43.2% | −23.7 pp | 5.14 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés to score | 81.6% | 70.9% | +10.7 pp | 1.23 |
| Deportivo Alavés not to score | 18.4% | 29.1% | −10.7 pp | 5.43 |
| Villarreal to score | 63.5% | 76.6% | −13.1 pp | 1.57 |
| Villarreal not to score | 36.5% | 23.4% | +13.1 pp | 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 55.7% | −2.2 pp | 1.87 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.4% | 44.3% | +2.2 pp | 2.15 |
| Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals | 47.6% | 35.5% | +12.1 pp | 2.10 |
| Deportivo Alavés at most 1 goal | 52.4% | 64.5% | −12.1 pp | 1.91 |
| Villarreal 2+ goals | 23.5% | 46.3% | −22.9 pp | 4.26 |
| Villarreal at most 1 goal | 76.5% | 53.7% | +22.9 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | 76.2% | −0.9 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 23.8% | +0.9 pp | 4.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 52.6% | −6.4 pp | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 47.4% | +6.4 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Deportivo Alavés sample
- 20 matches
- Villarreal sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.