Monday, 02/11/2026 at 21:00
Full timeDeportivo La Coruña 2:1 Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruña were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Deportivo La Coruña's attack: 2.36 xG against 1.34 projected (+1.02).
Goals
- 32' Ante Budimir Osasuna · 0.31 xG chance 0–1
- 64' Mario Soriano Deportivo La Coruña · 0.15 xG chance 1–1
- 87' Bil Nsongo Deportivo La Coruña · 0.83 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 42% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Osasuna
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Deportivo La Coruña produced 1.02 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 11
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 14
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 2.06
- 0.90
- Set-piece xG
- 0.46
- 0.21
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.53 for Deportivo La Coruña and 1.10 for Osasuna.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.63 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Deportivo La Coruña
- Osasuna
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.35 xG created 0.99 xGA
1.29 xG created 1.77 xGA
- L 1.05 created, 1.43 conceded against Espanyol
- L 0.48 created, 3.97 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- D 0.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- L 1.51 created, 2.77 conceded against Real Betis
- W 3.38 created, 0.28 conceded against Racing de Santander
- L 0.77 created, 1.14 conceded against Sevilla
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged3 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.25 | +4.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +4.0% | Won |
| Osasuna to win | 4.00 | +3.7% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | +2.0% | Won |
| Osasuna to score | 1.50 | +0.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | 42.0% | 46.7% | −4.6 pp | 2.38 |
| Draw | 32.1% | 29.4% | +2.6 pp | 3.12 |
| Osasuna | 25.9% | 23.9% | +2.0 pp | 3.86 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña to score | 76.6% | 75.0% | +1.6 pp | 1.31 |
| Deportivo La Coruña not to score | 23.4% | 25.0% | −1.6 pp | 4.27 |
| Osasuna to score | 67.2% | 62.5% | +4.7 pp | 1.49 |
| Osasuna not to score | 32.8% | 37.5% | −4.7 pp | 3.05 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 48.0% | +5.4 pp | 1.87 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.6% | 52.0% | −5.4 pp | 2.14 |
| Deportivo La Coruña 2+ goals | 39.7% | 41.1% | −1.4 pp | 2.52 |
| Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal | 60.3% | 58.9% | +1.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Osasuna 2+ goals | 27.5% | 26.9% | +0.7 pp | 3.63 |
| Osasuna at most 1 goal | 72.5% | 73.1% | −0.7 pp | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | 68.2% | +4.7 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 31.8% | −4.7 pp | 3.68 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 41.3% | +1.8 pp | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 58.7% | −1.8 pp | 1.76 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Deportivo La Coruña sample
- 10 matches
- Osasuna sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.