Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeDeportivo La Coruña 0:1 Sevilla
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 36%. Sevilla won 1–0. The biggest difference was Deportivo La Coruña's attack: 0.14 xG against 1.01 projected (−0.87). Sevilla produced 0.73 xG against 1.00 projected (−0.27).
Goals
- 52' Miguel Sierra Sevilla · 0.23 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 32%
- Draw
- 36%
- Sevilla
- 32% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Deportivo La Coruña produced 0.87 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 4
- 11
- On target
- 3
- 6
- Inside the box
- 1
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.18
- 0.82
- Set-piece xG
- 0.01
- 0.05
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.18 for Deportivo La Coruña and 0.89 for Sevilla.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
15 shots · 1.06 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Deportivo La Coruña
- Sevilla
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.91 xG created 1.30 xGA
1.10 xG created 1.19 xGA
- L 0.80 created, 1.59 conceded against Celta Vigo
- W 2.19 created, 1.89 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- W 1.26 created, 1.37 conceded against Athletic Club
- L 0.90 created, 0.93 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- D 0.53 created, 1.23 conceded against Espanyol
- W 0.93 created, 0.10 conceded against Valencia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.25 | +15.5% | Lost |
| Deportivo La Coruña not to score | 3.25 | +9.5% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | +9.0% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.00 | +8.7% | Won |
| Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal | 1.44 | +5.9% | Won |
| Sevilla at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | 32.4% | 39.4% | −7.0 pp | 3.08 |
| Draw | 35.5% | 29.1% | +6.5 pp | 2.81 |
| Sevilla | 32.0% | 31.5% | +0.5 pp | 3.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña to score | 66.3% | 70.9% | −4.6 pp | 1.51 |
| Deportivo La Coruña not to score | 33.7% | 29.1% | +4.6 pp | 2.97 |
| Sevilla to score | 66.0% | 66.3% | −0.2 pp | 1.51 |
| Sevilla not to score | 34.0% | 33.7% | +0.2 pp | 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 48.0% | −2.2 pp | 2.18 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.2% | 52.0% | +2.2 pp | 1.85 |
| Deportivo La Coruña 2+ goals | 26.6% | 35.5% | −8.8 pp | 3.75 |
| Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal | 73.4% | 64.5% | +8.8 pp | 1.36 |
| Sevilla 2+ goals | 26.4% | 31.3% | −4.9 pp | 3.79 |
| Sevilla at most 1 goal | 73.6% | 68.7% | +4.9 pp | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.8% | 68.2% | −4.4 pp | 1.57 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 31.8% | +4.4 pp | 2.76 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.5% | 41.3% | −8.7 pp | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 67.5% | 58.7% | +8.7 pp | 1.48 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Deportivo La Coruña sample
- 5 matches
- Sevilla sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Deportivo La Coruña has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.