Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 20:00
28d 19h to kick-offRacing de Santander – Real Madrid
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Racing de Santander
- 23%
- Draw
- 27%
- Real Madrid
- 50%
| Racing de Santander | Draw | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.39 | 3.69 | 2.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Real Madrid
50% Real Madrid to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 20th
- Real Madrid attack v Racing de Santander defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 12th
- Real Madrid defence v Racing de Santander attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.53 vs -1.08
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.20 – 1.79
- Racing de Santander v Real Madrid
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Racing de Santander | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.45 · 7th | (better) 2.64 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.20 · 20th | (better) 1.09 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 17th | (better) +1.55 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.14 · 14th | (better) 2.27 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.08 | (better) +1.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Real Madrid clean sheet
- 27%
- Real Madrid 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 1:2
- 11.2%
- 0:2
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Racing de Santander sample
- 7 matches
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Racing de Santander
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Real Madrid
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Racing de Santander has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.