Celta Vigo 5:0 Racing de Santander: xG & match report · La Liga

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · La Liga

Celta Vigo Home 2.14 xG · 13 shots

Racing de Santander Away 0.75 xG · 11 shots

50 The scoreline reflected the chances

Celta Vigo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Celta Vigo's attack: 2.14 xG against 1.38 projected (+0.76). Racing de Santander produced 0.75 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.36).

Goals

32' Hugo González (pen.) Celta Vigo · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
43' Ilaix Moriba Celta Vigo · 0.16 xG chance 2–0
69' Miguel Román Celta Vigo · 0.02 xG chance 3–0
78' Pablo Durán Celta Vigo · 0.32 xG chance 4–0
90' Pablo Durán Celta Vigo · 0.35 xG chance 5–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Celta Vigo: 41% What happened
Draw: 31%
Racing de Santander: 27%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Celta Vigo 1.38 2.14 +0.76

Racing de Santander 1.11 0.75 -0.36

Celta Vigo produced 0.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Celta Vigo Racing de Santander

Shots: 13; 11
On target: 9; 5
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.16; 0.45
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.15
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.30 for Celta Vigo and 0.62 for Racing de Santander.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.67 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Celta Vigo
Racing de Santander
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Celta Vigo

0.82 xG created 1.35 xGA

D 0.66 created, 0.58 conceded against Valencia
L 0.14 created, 2.60 conceded against Osasuna
L 0.75 created, 2.78 conceded against Athletic Club
D 0.43 created, 1.05 conceded against Real Sociedad
D 1.03 created, 0.65 conceded against Getafe
D 1.90 created, 0.43 conceded against Málaga

Racing de Santander

1.56 xG created 2.21 xGA

D 1.87 created, 0.67 conceded against Villarreal
L 1.31 created, 1.24 conceded against Getafe
W 1.72 created, 1.03 conceded against Elche
L 0.48 created, 1.61 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 2.01 created, 1.98 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.98 created, 6.74 conceded against Barcelona

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Celta Vigo against Racing de Santander before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Celta Vigo not to score	6.00	+33.5%	Lost
Celta Vigo at most 1 goal	2.10	+23.1%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+16.3%	Lost
Racing de Santander to win	4.20	+14.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+12.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+6.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Celta Vigo	41.3%	51.8%	−10.4 pp	2.42
Draw	31.4%	25.6%	+5.8 pp	3.18
Racing de Santander	27.2%	22.6%	+4.6 pp	3.67

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score	77.8%	84.2%	−6.5 pp	1.29
Celta Vigo not to score	22.2%	15.8%	+6.5 pp	4.49
Racing de Santander to score	70.0%	68.7%	+1.2 pp	1.43
Racing de Santander not to score	30.0%	31.3%	−1.2 pp	3.33
Both teams to score	56.3%	58.9%	−2.6 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.7%	41.1%	+2.6 pp	2.29
Celta Vigo 2+ goals	41.4%	55.7%	−14.4 pp	2.42
Celta Vigo at most 1 goal	58.6%	44.3%	+14.4 pp	1.71
Racing de Santander 2+ goals	30.6%	33.7%	−3.2 pp	3.27
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	69.4%	66.3%	+3.2 pp	1.44
Over 1.5 goals	75.5%	78.0%	−2.5 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.5%	22.0%	+2.5 pp	4.08
Over 2.5 goals	46.4%	54.9%	−8.5 pp	2.15
Under 2.5 goals	53.6%	45.1%	+8.5 pp	1.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Celta Vigo sample: 20 matches
Racing de Santander sample: 6 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Racing de Santander has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.