Barcelona 7:2 Racing de Santander: xG & match report · La Liga

Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 21:30

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Match report · La Liga

Barcelona Home 6.74 xG · 31 shots

Racing de Santander Away 1.98 xG · 5 shots

72 The scoreline reflected the chances

Barcelona were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 73%. They won 7–2. The biggest difference was Barcelona's attack: 6.74 xG against 2.39 projected (+4.35). Racing de Santander produced 1.98 xG against 0.79 projected (+1.19).

Goals

8' João Cancelo Barcelona · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
25' Raphinha (pen.) Barcelona · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
30' Maguette Gueye Racing de Santander · 0.31 xG chance 2–1
36' Asier Villalibre (o.g.) Barcelona · 0.10 xG chance 3–1
42' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.32 xG chance 4–1
65' Yassir Zabiri Racing de Santander · 0.94 xG chance 4–2
67' Raphinha (pen.) Barcelona · 0.82 xG chance 5–2
79' Gabriel Jesus Barcelona · 0.14 xG chance 6–2
89' Lamine Yamal Barcelona · 0.32 xG chance 7–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Barcelona: 73% What happened
Draw: 19%
Racing de Santander: 8%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Barcelona 2.39 6.74 +4.35

Racing de Santander 0.79 1.98 +1.19

Barcelona produced 4.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Barcelona Racing de Santander

Shots: 31; 5
On target: 10; 2
Inside the box: 23; 5
xG per shot: 0.22; 0.37
Open play xG: 2.74; 1.80
Set-piece xG: 1.61; 0.03
Penalties: 3; 0

Barcelona's shots add up to 6.81 xG and Racing de Santander's to 1.83; the published figures are 6.74 and 1.98.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 8.64 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Barcelona
Racing de Santander
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Barcelona

3.31 xG created 1.12 xGA

L 1.52 created, 1.48 conceded against Valencia
W 4.38 created, 0.70 conceded against Elche
W 4.23 created, 0.25 conceded against Athletic Club
W 3.04 created, 1.21 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 4.08 created, 0.66 conceded against Valencia
W 2.58 created, 2.42 conceded against Levante UD

Racing de Santander

1.48 xG created 1.31 xGA

D 1.87 created, 0.67 conceded against Villarreal
L 1.31 created, 1.24 conceded against Getafe
W 1.72 created, 1.03 conceded against Elche
L 0.48 created, 1.61 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 2.01 created, 1.98 conceded against Deportivo Alavés

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Barcelona against Racing de Santander before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Barcelona at most 1 goal	10.00	+185.4%	Lost
Draw	14.00	+159.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	6.00	+117.4%	Lost
Barcelona not to score	29.00	+117.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	15.00	+108.9%	Lost
Racing de Santander to win	23.00	+83.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Barcelona	73.5%	89.1%	−15.6 pp	1.36
Draw	18.5%	6.8%	+11.8 pp	5.39
Racing de Santander	8.0%	4.1%	+3.8 pp	12.56

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Barcelona to score	92.5%	96.6%	−4.1 pp	1.08
Barcelona not to score	7.5%	3.4%	+4.1 pp	13.37
Racing de Santander to score	57.8%	53.7%	+4.1 pp	1.73
Racing de Santander not to score	42.2%	46.3%	−4.1 pp	2.37
Both teams to score	54.6%	52.0%	+2.6 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.4%	48.0%	−2.6 pp	2.20
Barcelona 2+ goals	71.5%	90.4%	−18.9 pp	1.40
Barcelona at most 1 goal	28.5%	9.6%	+18.9 pp	3.50
Racing de Santander 2+ goals	18.1%	20.8%	−2.7 pp	5.54
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	81.9%	79.2%	+2.7 pp	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	86.1%	93.6%	−7.5 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.9%	6.4%	+7.5 pp	7.18
Over 2.5 goals	63.8%	84.2%	−20.4 pp	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	36.2%	15.8%	+20.4 pp	2.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Barcelona sample: 20 matches
Racing de Santander sample: 5 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Racing de Santander has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.