Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeReal Madrid 4:0 Málaga
Real Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Real Madrid's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.74 projected (+0.88).
Goals
- 19' Jude Bellingham Real Madrid · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 26' Alfonso Herrero (o.g.) Real Madrid · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
- 30' Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid · 0.11 xG chance 3–0
- 90' Arda Güler Real Madrid · 0.94 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Real Madrid
- 61% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Málaga
- 13%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Real Madrid produced 0.88 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 14
- On target
- 9
- 1
- Inside the box
- 14
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.91
- 0.41
- Set-piece xG
- 0.52
- 0.33
- Penalties
- —
- —
Real Madrid's shots add up to 2.43 xG and Málaga's to 0.74; the published figures are 2.62 and 0.71.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 3.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Real Madrid
- Málaga
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.83 xG created 0.87 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga to win | 21.00 | +167.9% | Lost |
| Real Madrid not to score | 21.00 | +160.4% | Lost |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 6.00 | +132.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 10.00 | +125.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | +83.2% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.00 | +75.9% | Lost |
| Málaga 2+ goals | 7.00 | +5.9% | Lost |
| Málaga to score | 2.00 | +5.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 60.7% | 86.1% | −25.4 pp | 1.65 |
| Draw | 26.5% | 9.4% | +17.1 pp | 3.77 |
| Málaga | 12.8% | 4.5% | +8.3 pp | 7.84 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to score | 84.7% | 95.4% | −10.7 pp | 1.18 |
| Real Madrid not to score | 15.3% | 4.6% | +10.7 pp | 6.53 |
| Málaga to score | 55.4% | 46.3% | +9.0 pp | 1.81 |
| Málaga not to score | 44.6% | 53.7% | −9.0 pp | 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 44.3% | +4.2 pp | 2.06 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.5% | 55.7% | −4.2 pp | 1.94 |
| Real Madrid 2+ goals | 53.6% | 84.2% | −30.6 pp | 1.87 |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 46.4% | 15.8% | +30.6 pp | 2.15 |
| Málaga 2+ goals | 16.3% | 13.6% | +2.7 pp | 6.14 |
| Málaga at most 1 goal | 83.7% | 86.4% | −2.7 pp | 1.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | 89.4% | −14.5 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 10.6% | +14.5 pp | 3.98 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 76.2% | −30.1 pp | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 23.8% | +30.1 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Málaga sample
- 2 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Málaga has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.