Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeVillarreal 2:3 Deportivo La Coruña
Villarreal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. Deportivo La Coruña won 3–2. The biggest difference was Villarreal's attack: 1.14 xG against 1.65 projected (−0.51).
Goals
- 19' Nicolas Pépé Villarreal · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 43' Luismi Cruz Deportivo La Coruña · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
- 76' Adama Traoré (o.g.) Villarreal · 0.10 xG chance 2–1
- 79' Zakaria Eddahchouri Deportivo La Coruña · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
- 88' Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Deportivo La Coruña · 0.24 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Villarreal
- 55%
- Draw
- 28%
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 17% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Villarreal produced 0.51 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.97
- 0.79
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Villarreal's shots add up to 1.21 xG; the published figure is 1.14.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.00 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Villarreal
- Deportivo La Coruña
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.71 xG created 1.15 xGA
- L 0.83 created, 0.87 conceded against Sevilla
- L 0.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- W 2.48 created, 1.16 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- D 0.67 created, 1.87 conceded against Racing de Santander
- D 3.60 created, 0.78 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- L 1.74 created, 0.73 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
0.96 xG created 1.53 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.50 | +27.4% | Lost |
| Villarreal not to score | 7.00 | +17.7% | Lost |
| Villarreal at most 1 goal | 2.38 | +17.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +16.0% | Lost |
| Deportivo La Coruña to win | 6.50 | +10.0% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +8.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 54.8% | 64.2% | −9.5 pp | 1.83 |
| Draw | 28.3% | 21.1% | +7.2 pp | 3.53 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 16.9% | 14.6% | +2.3 pp | 5.91 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal to score | 83.2% | 86.4% | −3.2 pp | 1.20 |
| Villarreal not to score | 16.8% | 13.6% | +3.2 pp | 5.95 |
| Deportivo La Coruña to score | 61.2% | 57.7% | +3.5 pp | 1.63 |
| Deportivo La Coruña not to score | 38.8% | 42.3% | −3.5 pp | 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 52.0% | +0.6 pp | 1.90 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.4% | 48.0% | −0.6 pp | 2.11 |
| Villarreal 2+ goals | 50.7% | 60.8% | −10.1 pp | 1.97 |
| Villarreal at most 1 goal | 49.3% | 39.2% | +10.1 pp | 2.03 |
| Deportivo La Coruña 2+ goals | 21.4% | 23.4% | −2.0 pp | 4.67 |
| Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal | 78.6% | 76.6% | +2.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 78.9% | −3.1 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 21.1% | +3.1 pp | 4.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 56.9% | −9.6 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 43.1% | +9.6 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Villarreal sample
- 20 matches
- Deportivo La Coruña sample
- 3 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Deportivo La Coruña has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.