Estoril Praia 0:2 Rio Ave: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Estoril Praia Home 1.16 xG · 18 shots

Rio Ave Away 0.70 xG · 3 shots

02 The result went against the chances

Estoril Praia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Rio Ave won 2–0. The biggest difference was Rio Ave's attack: 0.70 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.39).

Goals

15' Jalen Blesa Rio Ave · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
72' Tamblé Monteiro Rio Ave · 0.57 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Estoril Praia: 39%
Draw: 32%
Rio Ave: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Estoril Praia 1.30 1.16 -0.14

Rio Ave 1.09 0.70 -0.39

Rio Ave produced 0.39 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Estoril Praia Rio Ave

Shots: 18; 3
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 11; 3
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.24
Open play xG: 1.05; 0.14
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.59
Penalties: —; —

Rio Ave's shots add up to 0.73 xG; the published figure is 0.70.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.89 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Estoril Praia
Rio Ave
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Estoril Praia

0.98 xG created 1.75 xGA

L 0.66 created, 1.05 conceded against Famalicão
D 0.89 created, 0.41 conceded against Sporting Braga
D 0.90 created, 1.27 conceded against FC Alverca
L 1.52 created, 4.22 conceded against Benfica
D 1.06 created, 1.47 conceded against Famalicão
L 0.82 created, 2.08 conceded against CD Nacional

Rio Ave

0.71 xG created 1.56 xGA

L 0.59 created, 1.13 conceded against Vitória SC
D 1.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Gil Vicente
L 0.70 created, 1.58 conceded against Sporting
D 0.61 created, 2.34 conceded against Casa Pia
L 0.19 created, 1.66 conceded against Gil Vicente
L 0.58 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Porto

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Estoril Praia: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Estoril Praia against Rio Ave before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Rio Ave to win	4.00	+14.2%	Won
Draw	3.50	+12.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+12.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Estoril Praia	39.2%	49.6%	−10.3 pp	2.55
Draw	32.2%	26.9%	+5.3 pp	3.10
Rio Ave	28.6%	23.5%	+5.0 pp	3.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.5%	54.7%	−0.2 pp	1.84
Both teams not to score	45.5%	45.3%	+0.2 pp	2.20
Over 1.5 goals	73.5%	75.0%	−1.5 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.5%	25.0%	+1.5 pp	3.77
Over 2.5 goals	43.8%	52.6%	−8.8 pp	2.28
Under 2.5 goals	56.2%	47.4%	+8.8 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Estoril Praia sample: 20 matches
Rio Ave sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.