xgEdge

Expected goals

Estoril Praia expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Estoril Praia's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Estoril Praia xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.85 xG per match
#16/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
5.96 7 matches
Defence
1.62 xGA per match
#11/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
11.31 7 matches
xG difference
-0.76 xGD per match
#15/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.35 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.82 xPts per match
#16/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
5.71 vs 2 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Estoril Praia's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Liga Portugal. They rank #15 for xG difference at -0.76 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 3 goals are 2.96 below 5.96 xG, while 2 points are 3.71 below 5.71 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
3 5.96 -2.96 scored 2.96 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 11.31 -1.31 conceded 1.31 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2 5.71 -3.71 3.71 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Estoril Praia are 2.96 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -3.01, against Sporting Braga on Mon 14/09.

Goals
3
xG
5.96
Gap
-2.96
Fri 07/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Mon 31/08 Mon 07/09 Mon 14/09 Sun 20/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.06 -0.88 -2.04 -1.40 -2.26 -3.01 -2.96 -0.06 -0.82 -1.16 +0.64 -0.86 -0.75 +0.05 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Estoril Praia: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 07/08 Famalicão 1 1.06 -0.06 -0.06
Sun 16/08 CD Nacional 0 0.82 -0.82 -0.88
Sat 22/08 Rio Ave 0 1.16 -1.16 -2.04
Mon 31/08 Benfica 1 0.36 +0.64 -1.40
Mon 07/09 FC Arouca 0 0.86 -0.86 -2.26
Mon 14/09 Sporting Braga 0 0.75 -0.75 -3.01
Sun 20/09 Casa Pia 1 0.95 +0.05 -2.96

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Estoril Praia xG trend

Current form -0.75 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 7 matches. The worst was against Benfica on Mon 31/08 (-1.67).

npxG · last 6
0.78
npxGA · last 6
1.53
-2 -1 0 +1 -0.44 Fri 07/08 -1.28 Sun 16/08 +0.46 Sat 22/08 -1.67 Mon 31/08 -0.25 Mon 07/09 -1.32 Mon 14/09 -0.42 Sun 20/09 -0.70 season avg
Estoril Praia: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 07/08 Famalicão 0.99 1.43 -0.44 -0.44
Sun 16/08 CD Nacional 0.82 2.10 -1.28 -0.86
Sat 22/08 Rio Ave 1.16 0.70 +0.46 -0.42
Mon 31/08 Benfica 0.36 2.03 -1.67 -0.73
Mon 07/09 FC Arouca 0.84 1.09 -0.25 -0.64
Mon 14/09 Sporting Braga 0.53 1.85 -1.32 -0.75
Sun 20/09 Casa Pia 0.96 1.38 -0.42 -0.70

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.81 npxG and 1.51 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 12 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 18

  1. Casa Pia Home −0.35
  2. Sporting Braga Away +0.15
  3. FC Arouca Home −0.08
  4. Benfica Away +0.79
  5. Rio Ave Home −0.55
  6. CD Nacional Away −0.27
  7. Famalicão Home +0.02

Last 5

−0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 12 hardest of 18

  1. Casa Pia Home −0.35
  2. Sporting Braga Away +0.15
  3. FC Arouca Home −0.08
  4. Benfica Away +0.79
  5. Rio Ave Home −0.55

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Estoril Praia shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Estoril Praia take 12.7 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.06 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #8 in Liga Portugal for volume and #17 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.7 shots per match
#8/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
89 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.06 npxG per shot
#17/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
5.66 npxG from 89 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
#12/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
97 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#14/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
10.58 npxGA from 97 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 53 of 89 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 58 of 97 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.4 of 5.7 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

66% open play · 34% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 3.6 of 10.6 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Estoril Praia home and away xG

Estoril Praia per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.01 0.64
xGA / match 1.35 1.97
xGD / match -0.35 -1.32
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.11 0.43

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Estoril Praia match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
0.85
xGA / match
1.62
xGD / match
-0.76
Points
2 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Casa Pia H xG 0.95 xGA 2.17 P xGD -1.22
  2. Mon 14/09 Sporting Braga A xG 0.75 xGA 1.79 xGD -1.04
  3. Mon 07/09 FC Arouca H xG 0.86 xGA 1.07 xGD -0.21
  4. Mon 31/08 Benfica A Weakest underlying xG 0.36 xGA 2.03 xGD -1.67
  5. Sat 22/08 Rio Ave H Best underlying xG 1.16 xGA 0.70 xGD +0.46
  6. Sun 16/08 CD Nacional A xG 0.82 xGA 2.08 xGD -1.26
  7. Fri 07/08 Famalicão H xG 1.06 xGA 1.47 xGD -0.41

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Estoril Praia in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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