Rio Ave 3:3 CF Estrela Amadora: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:45

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Rio Ave Home 1.23 xG · 11 shots

CF Estrela Amadora Away 1.87 xG · 21 shots

33 CF Estrela Amadora had the better chances, but it finished level

Rio Ave were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was CF Estrela Amadora's attack: 1.87 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.73).

Goals

21' Ianis Stoica CF Estrela Amadora · 0.12 xG chance 0–1
45' Francisco Petrasso Rio Ave · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
53' Abraham Marcus CF Estrela Amadora · 0.02 xG chance 1–2
57' Roland Galčík Rio Ave · 0.02 xG chance 2–2
61' Abraham Marcus CF Estrela Amadora · 0.28 xG chance 2–3
79' Jalen Blesa (pen.) Rio Ave · 0.82 xG chance 3–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rio Ave: 35%
Draw: 33% What happened
CF Estrela Amadora: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Rio Ave 1.18 1.23 +0.05

CF Estrela Amadora 1.14 1.87 +0.73

CF Estrela Amadora produced 0.73 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Rio Ave CF Estrela Amadora

Shots: 11; 21
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 4; 14
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.19; 1.46
Set-piece xG: 0.26; 0.62
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.45 for Rio Ave and 2.07 for CF Estrela Amadora.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 3.35 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Rio Ave
CF Estrela Amadora
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rio Ave

0.48 xG created 1.77 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.34 conceded against Casa Pia
L 0.19 created, 1.66 conceded against Gil Vicente
L 0.58 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Porto
W 0.70 created, 1.16 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.47 created, 1.66 conceded against Sporting
L 0.32 created, 1.80 conceded against Santa Clara

CF Estrela Amadora

1.11 xG created 1.67 xGA

D 0.73 created, 2.41 conceded against Sporting Braga
D 1.01 created, 2.63 conceded against Sporting
D 1.29 created, 1.75 conceded against FC Alverca
W 2.10 created, 0.83 conceded against CD Nacional
D 0.94 created, 1.80 conceded against Famalicão
W 0.57 created, 0.61 conceded against Sporting Braga

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Rio Ave: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rio Ave against CF Estrela Amadora before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
CF Estrela Amadora at most 1 goal	1.50	+2.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rio Ave	34.8%	34.5%	+0.3 pp	2.88
Draw	33.0%	31.0%	+2.0 pp	3.03
CF Estrela Amadora	32.2%	34.5%	−2.2 pp	3.10

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rio Ave to score	72.2%	72.3%	−0.1 pp	1.39
Rio Ave not to score	27.8%	27.7%	+0.1 pp	3.60
CF Estrela Amadora to score	70.6%	72.3%	−1.7 pp	1.42
CF Estrela Amadora not to score	29.4%	27.7%	+1.7 pp	3.40
Both teams to score	52.9%	53.3%	−0.4 pp	1.89
Both teams not to score	47.1%	46.7%	+0.4 pp	2.12
Rio Ave 2+ goals	33.6%	37.5%	−3.9 pp	2.98
Rio Ave at most 1 goal	66.4%	62.5%	+3.9 pp	1.51
CF Estrela Amadora 2+ goals	31.7%	37.5%	−5.8 pp	3.15
CF Estrela Amadora at most 1 goal	68.3%	62.5%	+5.8 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	71.6%	70.9%	+0.7 pp	1.40
Under 1.5 goals	28.4%	29.1%	−0.7 pp	3.53
Over 2.5 goals	41.5%	45.4%	−3.9 pp	2.41
Under 2.5 goals	58.5%	54.6%	+3.9 pp	1.71

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rio Ave sample: 20 matches
CF Estrela Amadora sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.