Monday, 26/10/2026 at 19:45
Full timeSanta Clara 1:2 Benfica
Benfica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Santa Clara's attack: 1.56 xG against 0.91 projected (+0.65). Benfica produced 1.81 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.65).
Goals
- 32' Luis Fernando (pen.) Santa Clara · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 62' Vangelis Pavlidis Benfica · 0.87 xG chance 1–1
- 68' Gianluca Prestianni Benfica · 0.10 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Santa Clara
- 26%
- Draw
- 35%
- Benfica
- 40% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Santa Clara produced 0.65 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 16
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 5
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.42
- 1.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.36
- 0.29
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.77 for Santa Clara and 1.81 for Benfica.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.47 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Santa Clara
- Benfica
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.23 xG created 0.57 xGA
2.14 xG created 0.62 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica not to score | 9.00 | +155.8% | Lost |
| Santa Clara to win | 9.50 | +145.3% | Lost |
| Benfica at most 1 goal | 2.75 | +84.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.00 | +72.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +71.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +50.7% | Lost |
| Santa Clara 2+ goals | 5.50 | +25.2% | Lost |
| Santa Clara to score | 1.83 | +15.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 25.8% | 9.6% | +16.2 pp | 3.87 |
| Draw | 34.6% | 18.3% | +16.3 pp | 2.89 |
| Benfica | 39.6% | 72.1% | −32.4 pp | 2.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara to score | 62.8% | 50.0% | +12.8 pp | 1.59 |
| Santa Clara not to score | 37.2% | 50.0% | −12.8 pp | 2.68 |
| Benfica to score | 71.6% | 89.4% | −17.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Benfica not to score | 28.4% | 10.6% | +17.8 pp | 3.52 |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 46.7% | +0.3 pp | 2.13 |
| Both teams not to score | 53.1% | 53.3% | −0.3 pp | 1.88 |
| Santa Clara 2+ goals | 22.8% | 17.2% | +5.6 pp | 4.39 |
| Santa Clara at most 1 goal | 77.2% | 82.8% | −5.6 pp | 1.29 |
| Benfica 2+ goals | 32.9% | 66.3% | −33.4 pp | 3.04 |
| Benfica at most 1 goal | 67.1% | 33.7% | +33.4 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | 81.1% | −15.4 pp | 1.52 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 18.9% | +15.4 pp | 2.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 59.0% | −24.5 pp | 2.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 41.0% | +24.5 pp | 1.53 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Benfica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.