Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeSanta Clara 0:0 Sporting Braga
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 38%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Sporting Braga's attack: 0.50 xG against 0.75 projected (−0.25).
The model against the result
- Santa Clara
- 37%
- Draw
- 38% What happened
- Sporting Braga
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sporting Braga produced 0.25 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 8
- On target
- 1
- 1
- Inside the box
- 5
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.92
- 0.39
- Set-piece xG
- 0.11
- 0.12
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.06 for Santa Clara and 0.52 for Sporting Braga.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
18 shots · 1.54 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Santa Clara
- Sporting Braga
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.41 xG created 0.72 xGA
1.57 xG created 0.60 xGA
- D 2.41 created, 0.73 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
- D 1.50 created, 0.21 conceded against Moreirense
- W 0.83 created, 0.23 conceded against Vitória SC
- W 2.27 created, 1.08 conceded against FC Alverca
- L 0.61 created, 0.57 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
- W 1.79 created, 0.75 conceded against Estoril Praia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Braga not to score | 3.40 | +50.5% | Won |
| Santa Clara to win | 3.50 | +30.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +25.9% | Won |
| Sporting Braga at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +25.2% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 2.63 | +18.2% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | +16.7% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 1.70 | +5.1% | Won |
| Santa Clara to score | 1.57 | +1.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 37.2% | 26.8% | +10.3 pp | 2.69 |
| Draw | 38.1% | 28.5% | +9.7 pp | 2.62 |
| Sporting Braga | 24.7% | 44.7% | −20.0 pp | 4.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara to score | 64.9% | 58.9% | +6.0 pp | 1.54 |
| Santa Clara not to score | 35.1% | 41.1% | −6.0 pp | 2.85 |
| Sporting Braga to score | 55.7% | 72.3% | −16.6 pp | 1.79 |
| Sporting Braga not to score | 44.3% | 27.7% | +16.6 pp | 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 38.2% | 45.3% | −7.1 pp | 2.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 61.8% | 54.7% | +7.1 pp | 1.62 |
| Santa Clara 2+ goals | 24.7% | 23.4% | +1.3 pp | 4.04 |
| Santa Clara at most 1 goal | 75.3% | 76.6% | −1.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Sporting Braga 2+ goals | 16.5% | 37.5% | −21.0 pp | 6.04 |
| Sporting Braga at most 1 goal | 83.5% | 62.5% | +21.0 pp | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.0% | 64.5% | −9.5 pp | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 45.0% | 35.5% | +9.5 pp | 2.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23.9% | 39.0% | −15.1 pp | 4.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 76.1% | 61.0% | +15.1 pp | 1.31 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Sporting Braga sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.