Monday, 14/09/2026 at 21:45
Full timeSporting Braga 1:0 Estoril Praia
Sporting Braga were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Sporting Braga's attack: 1.79 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.44).
Goals
- 83' Jonas Wind Sporting Braga · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Sporting Braga
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Estoril Praia
- 17%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sporting Braga produced 0.44 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 12
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 13
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.00
- 0.49
- Set-piece xG
- 0.83
- 0.08
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.85 for Sporting Braga and 0.53 for Estoril Praia.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.40 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sporting Braga
- Estoril Praia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.31 xG created 1.00 xGA
- D 0.21 created, 3.19 conceded against Benfica
- D 2.41 created, 0.73 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
- D 1.50 created, 0.21 conceded against Moreirense
- W 0.83 created, 0.23 conceded against Vitória SC
- W 2.27 created, 1.08 conceded against FC Alverca
- L 0.61 created, 0.57 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
0.96 xG created 1.93 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged5 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Braga not to score | 7.00 | +62.4% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +52.6% | Won |
| Sporting Braga at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +50.0% | Won |
| Draw | 4.33 | +39.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +39.1% | Won |
| Estoril Praia to win | 8.00 | +32.1% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 1.91 | +9.6% | Won |
| Estoril Praia at most 1 goal | 1.18 | +0.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Braga | 51.3% | 66.4% | −15.1 pp | 1.95 |
| Draw | 32.1% | 21.8% | +10.4 pp | 3.11 |
| Estoril Praia | 16.5% | 11.8% | +4.7 pp | 6.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Braga to score | 76.8% | 86.4% | −9.6 pp | 1.30 |
| Sporting Braga not to score | 23.2% | 13.6% | +9.6 pp | 4.31 |
| Estoril Praia to score | 53.1% | 55.7% | −2.7 pp | 1.88 |
| Estoril Praia not to score | 46.9% | 44.3% | +2.7 pp | 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 50.0% | −7.4 pp | 2.35 |
| Both teams not to score | 57.4% | 50.0% | +7.4 pp | 1.74 |
| Sporting Braga 2+ goals | 40.0% | 62.5% | −22.5 pp | 2.50 |
| Sporting Braga at most 1 goal | 60.0% | 37.5% | +22.5 pp | 1.67 |
| Estoril Praia 2+ goals | 14.8% | 20.8% | −6.0 pp | 6.78 |
| Estoril Praia at most 1 goal | 85.2% | 79.2% | +6.0 pp | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.8% | 78.3% | −13.5 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 21.7% | +13.5 pp | 2.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 55.3% | −21.5 pp | 2.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66.2% | 44.7% | +21.5 pp | 1.51 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sporting Braga sample
- 20 matches
- Estoril Praia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 13 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 13 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.