xgEdge

Expected goals

Tondela expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Liga Portugal · after 34 matches · updated 1 Oct

Tondela's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Tondela xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.09 xG per match
#12/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Sporting 2.14
#2 Benfica 2.06
#3 FC Porto 1.81
#4 Sporting Braga 1.69
#5 Gil Vicente 1.32
#6 Famalicão 1.32
#7 Estoril Praia 1.23
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 1.22
#9 Vitória SC 1.21
#10 FC Alverca 1.20
#11 CD Nacional 1.16
#12 Tondela 1.09
#13 Santa Clara 1.07
#14 Rio Ave 1.03
#15 FC Arouca 1.01
#16 AVS - Futebol SAD 0.95
#17 Casa Pia 0.93
#18 Moreirense 0.91
League avg
1.30
Total
37.19 34 matches
Defence
1.48 xGA per match
#10/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Porto 0.65
#2 Sporting 0.78
#3 Benfica 0.83
#4 Famalicão 0.98
#5 Santa Clara 1.04
#6 Gil Vicente 1.08
#7 Sporting Braga 1.10
#8 FC Alverca 1.24
#9 Vitória SC 1.37
#10 Tondela 1.48
=11 FC Arouca 1.52
=11 Moreirense 1.52
#13 CD Nacional 1.54
#14 Rio Ave 1.55
#15 CF Estrela Amadora 1.57
#16 Casa Pia 1.62
#17 Estoril Praia 1.63
#18 AVS - Futebol SAD 1.84
League avg
1.30
Total
50.44 34 matches
xG difference
-0.39 xGD per match
#12/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Sporting +1.36
#2 Benfica +1.23
#3 FC Porto +1.17
#4 Sporting Braga +0.59
#5 Famalicão +0.34
#6 Gil Vicente +0.24
#7 Santa Clara +0.03
#8 FC Alverca -0.04
#9 Vitória SC -0.16
#10 CF Estrela Amadora -0.35
#11 CD Nacional -0.38
#12 Tondela -0.39
#13 Estoril Praia -0.40
#14 FC Arouca -0.52
#15 Rio Ave -0.52
#16 Moreirense -0.61
#17 Casa Pia -0.69
#18 AVS - Futebol SAD -0.89
League avg
0.00
Total
-13.25 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.15 xPts per match
#11/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Sporting 2.18
#2 FC Porto 2.14
#3 Benfica 2.13
#4 Sporting Braga 1.76
#5 Famalicão 1.64
#6 Gil Vicente 1.52
#7 FC Alverca 1.37
#8 Santa Clara 1.36
#9 Vitória SC 1.30
#10 CD Nacional 1.15
#11 Tondela 1.15
#12 FC Arouca 1.13
#13 Estoril Praia 1.12
#14 CF Estrela Amadora 1.12
#15 Rio Ave 1.07
#16 Moreirense 0.97
#17 Casa Pia 0.94
#18 AVS - Futebol SAD 0.79
League avg
1.38
Total
39.08 vs 28 actual pts

What the xG says

Tondela's underlying numbers sit close to the Liga Portugal average. They rank #12 for xG difference at -0.39 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 27 goals are 10.19 below 37.19 xG, while 28 points are 11.08 below 39.08 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 6.67 xG from penalties
27 37.19 -10.19 scored 10.19 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
55 50.44 +4.56 conceded 4.56 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
28 39.08 -11.08 11.08 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Tondela are 10.19 goals below their xG after 34 matches. The gap was widest at -11.70, against CD Nacional on Sat 25/04.

Goals
27
xG
37.19
Gap
-10.19
Sun 10/08 Sat 16/08 Sat 23/08 Sun 31/08 Fri 12/09 Sun 21/09 Sat 27/09 Sun 05/10 Sun 26/10 Sun 02/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 29/11 Sun 07/12 Mon 15/12 Sun 21/12 Sat 03/01 Sun 11/01 Sun 18/01 Sun 25/01 Sun 01/02 Sat 07/02 Fri 13/02 Fri 20/02 Sun 01/03 Mon 09/03 Sat 21/03 Fri 03/04 Mon 13/04 Sun 19/04 Sat 25/04 Wed 29/04 Sun 03/05 Mon 11/05 Sat 16/05 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -0.48 -1.27 -1.67 -2.46 -4.82 -5.97 -4.68 -5.43 -5.79 -5.58 -6.63 -6.79 -7.22 -9.50 -10.25 -7.92 -8.42 -9.92 -10.03 -10.45 -9.80 -10.35 -9.64 -9.26 -9.76 -10.40 -10.46 -10.21 -10.32 -11.70 -11.05 -11.23 -10.62 -10.19 -0.48 -0.79 -0.40 -0.79 -2.36 -1.15 +1.29 -0.75 -0.36 +0.21 -1.05 -0.16 -0.43 -2.28 -0.75 +2.33 -0.50 -1.50 -0.11 -0.42 +0.65 -0.55 +0.71 +0.38 -0.50 -0.64 -0.06 +0.25 -0.11 -1.38 +0.65 -0.18 +0.61 +0.43 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Tondela: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 10/08 Sporting Braga 0 0.48 -0.48 -0.48
Sat 16/08 Famalicão 0 0.79 -0.79 -1.27
Sat 23/08 Benfica 0 0.40 -0.40 -1.67
Sun 31/08 Estoril Praia 2 2.79 -0.79 -2.46
Fri 12/09 FC Alverca 0 2.36 -2.36 -4.82
Sun 21/09 CF Estrela Amadora 0 1.15 -1.15 -5.97
Sat 27/09 Santa Clara 2 0.71 +1.29 -4.68
Sun 05/10 Rio Ave 0 0.75 -0.75 -5.43
Sun 26/10 Sporting 0 0.36 -0.36 -5.79
Sun 02/11 AVS - Futebol SAD 2 1.79 +0.21 -5.58
Sat 08/11 Vitória SC 0 1.05 -1.05 -6.63
Sat 29/11 Gil Vicente 1 1.16 -0.16 -6.79
Sun 07/12 FC Porto 0 0.43 -0.43 -7.22
Mon 15/12 CD Nacional 1 3.28 -2.28 -9.50
Sun 21/12 Casa Pia 1 1.75 -0.75 -10.25
Sat 03/01 FC Arouca 3 0.67 +2.33 -7.92
Sun 11/01 Moreirense 0 0.50 -0.50 -8.42
Sun 18/01 Sporting Braga 0 1.50 -1.50 -9.92
Sun 25/01 Famalicão 0 0.11 -0.11 -10.03
Sun 01/02 Benfica 0 0.42 -0.42 -10.45
Sat 07/02 Estoril Praia 2 1.35 +0.65 -9.80
Fri 13/02 FC Alverca 1 1.55 -0.55 -10.35
Fri 20/02 CF Estrela Amadora 2 1.29 +0.71 -9.64
Sun 01/03 Santa Clara 2 1.62 +0.38 -9.26
Mon 09/03 Rio Ave 0 0.50 -0.50 -9.76
Sat 21/03 AVS - Futebol SAD 0 0.64 -0.64 -10.40
Fri 03/04 Vitória SC 0 0.06 -0.06 -10.46
Mon 13/04 Gil Vicente 2 1.75 +0.25 -10.21
Sun 19/04 FC Porto 0 0.11 -0.11 -10.32
Sat 25/04 CD Nacional 0 1.38 -1.38 -11.70
Wed 29/04 Sporting 2 1.35 +0.65 -11.05
Sun 03/05 Casa Pia 1 1.18 -0.18 -11.23
Mon 11/05 Moreirense 2 1.39 +0.61 -10.62
Sat 16/05 FC Arouca 1 0.57 +0.43 -10.19

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Tondela xG trend

Current form -0.52 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 34 matches. The worst was against Sporting on Sun 26/10 (-2.85).

npxG · last 6
0.76
npxGA · last 6
1.28
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.41 Sun 10/08 +0.00 Sat 16/08 -2.49 Sat 23/08 +0.48 Sun 31/08 -0.02 Fri 12/09 +0.23 Sun 21/09 -0.47 Sat 27/09 -1.67 Sun 05/10 -2.85 Sun 26/10 +0.04 Sun 02/11 +0.58 Sat 08/11 +0.67 Sat 29/11 -1.52 Sun 07/12 +0.15 Mon 15/12 -0.19 Sun 21/12 -0.06 Sat 03/01 +0.08 Sun 11/01 -0.07 Sun 18/01 -0.55 Sun 25/01 -1.47 Sun 01/02 +0.64 Sat 07/02 +0.84 Fri 13/02 -0.60 Fri 20/02 -0.07 Sun 01/03 +0.06 Mon 09/03 -0.14 Sat 21/03 -2.49 Fri 03/04 +0.64 Mon 13/04 -2.08 Sun 19/04 +0.07 Sat 25/04 -1.10 Wed 29/04 -0.06 Sun 03/05 +1.10 Mon 11/05 -1.03 Sat 16/05 -0.40 season avg
Tondela: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 10/08 Sporting Braga 0.78 1.19 -0.41 -0.41
Sat 16/08 Famalicão 1.08 1.08 +0.00 -0.20
Sat 23/08 Benfica 0.47 2.96 -2.49 -0.97
Sun 31/08 Estoril Praia 2.33 1.85 +0.48 -0.61
Fri 12/09 FC Alverca 1.57 1.59 -0.02 -0.49
Sun 21/09 CF Estrela Amadora 1.22 0.99 +0.23 -0.37
Sat 27/09 Santa Clara 0.74 1.21 -0.47 -0.38
Sun 05/10 Rio Ave 0.85 2.52 -1.67 -0.54
Sun 26/10 Sporting 0.36 3.21 -2.85 -0.80
Sun 02/11 AVS - Futebol SAD 1.00 0.96 +0.04 -0.72
Sat 08/11 Vitória SC 1.06 0.48 +0.58 -0.60
Sat 29/11 Gil Vicente 1.16 0.49 +0.67 -0.49
Sun 07/12 FC Porto 0.43 1.95 -1.52 -0.57
Mon 15/12 CD Nacional 1.75 1.60 +0.15 -0.52
Sun 21/12 Casa Pia 0.96 1.15 -0.19 -0.50
Sat 03/01 FC Arouca 0.67 0.73 -0.06 -0.47
Sun 11/01 Moreirense 0.50 0.42 +0.08 -0.44
Sun 18/01 Sporting Braga 1.50 1.57 -0.07 -0.42
Sun 25/01 Famalicão 0.11 0.66 -0.55 -0.42
Sun 01/02 Benfica 0.42 1.89 -1.47 -0.48
Sat 07/02 Estoril Praia 1.35 0.71 +0.64 -0.42
Fri 13/02 FC Alverca 1.56 0.72 +0.84 -0.37
Fri 20/02 CF Estrela Amadora 0.50 1.10 -0.60 -0.38
Sun 01/03 Santa Clara 0.83 0.90 -0.07 -0.36
Mon 09/03 Rio Ave 0.50 0.44 +0.06 -0.35
Sat 21/03 AVS - Futebol SAD 0.66 0.80 -0.14 -0.34
Fri 03/04 Vitória SC 0.06 2.55 -2.49 -0.42
Mon 13/04 Gil Vicente 1.52 0.88 +0.64 -0.38
Sun 19/04 FC Porto 0.11 2.19 -2.08 -0.44
Sat 25/04 CD Nacional 1.44 1.37 +0.07 -0.42
Wed 29/04 Sporting 0.67 1.77 -1.10 -0.44
Sun 03/05 Casa Pia 0.39 0.45 -0.06 -0.43
Mon 11/05 Moreirense 1.40 0.30 +1.10 -0.39
Sat 16/05 FC Arouca 0.57 1.60 -1.03 -0.40

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.90 npxG and 1.30 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 34 league matches
Last 5
number 12 hardest of 17 in Liga Portugal
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 34 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 18

  1. FC Arouca Away −0.01
  2. Moreirense Home −0.43
  3. Casa Pia Away −0.28
  4. Sporting Away +0.64
  5. CD Nacional Home −0.15
  6. FC Porto Away +0.49
  7. Gil Vicente Home +0.10
  8. Vitória SC Away +0.11
  9. AVS - Futebol SAD Home −0.54
  10. Rio Ave Home −0.27
  11. Santa Clara Home +0.14
  12. CF Estrela Amadora Away −0.27
  13. FC Alverca Home −0.08
  14. Estoril Praia Away −0.21
  15. Benfica Home +0.76
  16. Famalicão Away +0.27
  17. Sporting Braga Home +0.02
  18. Moreirense Away −0.43
  19. FC Arouca Home −0.01
  20. Casa Pia Home −0.28
  21. CD Nacional Away −0.15
  22. FC Porto Home +0.49
  23. Gil Vicente Away +0.10
  24. Vitória SC Home +0.11
  25. AVS - Futebol SAD Away −0.54
  26. Sporting Home +0.64
  27. Rio Ave Away −0.27
  28. Santa Clara Away +0.14
  29. CF Estrela Amadora Home −0.27
  30. FC Alverca Away −0.08
  31. Estoril Praia Home −0.21
  32. Benfica Away +0.76
  33. Famalicão Home +0.27
  34. Sporting Braga Away +0.02

Last 5

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 12 hardest of 17

  1. FC Arouca Away −0.01
  2. Moreirense Home −0.43
  3. Casa Pia Away −0.28
  4. Sporting Away +0.64
  5. CD Nacional Home −0.15

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Tondela shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Tondela take 10.6 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Liga Portugal for volume and #13 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.6 shots per match
#14/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Sporting 17.6
#2 Benfica 17.1
#3 FC Porto 14.4
#4 Gil Vicente 13.8
#5 Vitória SC 13.3
#6 CD Nacional 12.6
#7 Famalicão 12.2
#8 Santa Clara 11.7
=9 Estoril Praia 11.6
=9 Sporting Braga 11.6
#11 AVS - Futebol SAD 11.0
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 10.9
#13 FC Arouca 10.7
#14 Tondela 10.6
#15 Rio Ave 10.4
#16 FC Alverca 9.6
#17 Moreirense 8.9
#18 Casa Pia 8.8
League avg
12.0
Total
359 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#13/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.12
#2 Sporting 0.11
#3 FC Porto 0.11
#4 FC Alverca 0.11
#5 Benfica 0.11
#6 Famalicão 0.11
#7 Moreirense 0.10
#8 Casa Pia 0.10
#9 Estoril Praia 0.10
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#11 FC Arouca 0.09
#12 Rio Ave 0.09
#13 Tondela 0.09
#14 Vitória SC 0.08
#15 CD Nacional 0.08
#16 Santa Clara 0.08
#17 Gil Vicente 0.08
#18 AVS - Futebol SAD 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
30.52 npxG from 359 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.4 shots per match
#13/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Sporting 8.8
#2 Benfica 9.2
#3 FC Porto 9.6
=4 Santa Clara 9.7
=4 Sporting Braga 9.7
#6 Famalicão 10.5
#7 Gil Vicente 10.6
#8 Vitória SC 11.2
#9 Estoril Praia 12.1
#10 Moreirense 13.2
#11 FC Arouca 13.2
#12 Casa Pia 13.4
#13 Tondela 13.4
#14 CF Estrela Amadora 13.5
#15 FC Alverca 13.6
#16 CD Nacional 14.6
#17 AVS - Futebol SAD 15.4
#18 Rio Ave 15.4
League avg
12.0
Total
456 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#10/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Porto 0.06
#2 Sporting 0.08
#3 Benfica 0.08
#4 FC Alverca 0.08
#5 Famalicão 0.09
#6 Santa Clara 0.09
#7 CD Nacional 0.09
#8 Gil Vicente 0.09
#9 Moreirense 0.09
#10 Tondela 0.10
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.10
#12 Rio Ave 0.10
#13 Casa Pia 0.10
#14 FC Arouca 0.11
#15 Sporting Braga 0.11
#16 AVS - Futebol SAD 0.11
#17 Vitória SC 0.12
#18 Estoril Praia 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
44.28 npxGA from 456 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 217 of 360 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 291 of 456 shots allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Tondela home and away xG

Tondela per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 17
xG / match 1.16 1.03
xGA / match 1.39 1.58
xGD / match -0.22 -0.55
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.23 1.07

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Tondela match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
17
xG / match
1.16
xGA / match
1.39
xGD / match
-0.22
Points
13 of 51
  1. Mon 11/05 Moreirense H Best underlying xG 1.39 xGA 0.29 xGD +1.10
  2. Sat 25/04 CD Nacional H xG 1.38 xGA 1.26 xGD +0.12
  3. Mon 13/04 Gil Vicente H xG 1.75 xGA 1.67 P xGD +0.08
  4. Sat 21/03 AVS - Futebol SAD H xG 0.64 xGA 0.80 xGD -0.16
  5. Mon 09/03 Rio Ave H xG 0.50 xGA 1.23 P xGD -0.73
  6. Sun 01/03 Santa Clara H xG 1.62 P xGA 1.69 P xGD -0.07
  7. Fri 13/02 FC Alverca H xG 1.55 xGA 0.72 xGD +0.83
  8. Sun 01/02 Benfica H xG 0.42 xGA 1.89 xGD -1.47
  9. Sun 18/01 Sporting Braga H xG 1.50 xGA 1.57 xGD -0.07
  10. Sat 03/01 FC Arouca H xG 0.67 xGA 0.73 xGD -0.06
  11. Sun 21/12 Casa Pia H xG 1.75 P xGA 1.15 xGD +0.60
  12. Sun 07/12 FC Porto H xG 0.43 xGA 1.92 xGD -1.49
  13. Sat 08/11 Vitória SC H xG 1.05 xGA 1.27 P xGD -0.22
  14. Sun 26/10 Sporting H Weakest underlying xG 0.36 xGA 3.17 xGD -2.81
  15. Sun 21/09 CF Estrela Amadora H xG 1.15 xGA 1.08 xGD +0.07
  16. Sun 31/08 Estoril Praia H xG 2.79 xGA 2.11 xGD +0.68
  17. Sat 16/08 Famalicão H xG 0.79 xGA 1.01 xGD -0.22

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.17. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Tondela in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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