Olympique de Marseille 4:0 RC Strasbourg: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique de Marseille Home 1.86 xG · 14 shots

RC Strasbourg Away 0.18 xG · 5 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympique de Marseille were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was RC Strasbourg's attack: 0.18 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.97).

Goals

46' Amine Gouiri Olympique de Marseille · 0.40 xG chance 1–0
68' Amine Gouiri (pen.) Olympique de Marseille · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
89' Keyliane Abdallah Olympique de Marseille · 0.02 xG chance 3–0
90' Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Olympique de Marseille · 0.10 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympique de Marseille: 55% What happened
Draw: 26%
RC Strasbourg: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympique de Marseille 1.93 1.86 -0.07

RC Strasbourg 1.15 0.18 -0.97

RC Strasbourg produced 0.97 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympique de Marseille RC Strasbourg

Shots: 14; 5
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 9; 3
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.07; 0.15
Set-piece xG: 0.05; 0.06
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.10 for Olympique de Marseille and 0.20 for RC Strasbourg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 2.15 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympique de Marseille
RC Strasbourg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique de Marseille

2.17 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 3.55 created, 0.48 conceded against Metz
L 1.65 created, 1.33 conceded against Lorient
D 2.32 created, 1.46 conceded against Nice
L 1.36 created, 3.42 conceded against Nantes
W 1.21 created, 1.14 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.92 created, 2.49 conceded against Stade Rennais

RC Strasbourg

1.38 xG created 2.11 xGA

L 1.00 created, 4.25 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 1.34 created, 2.28 conceded against Lorient
L 0.41 created, 1.36 conceded against Toulouse
D 2.02 created, 0.59 conceded against Angers
W 2.02 created, 3.06 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 1.50 created, 1.13 conceded against AS Monaco

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympique de Marseille: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympique de Marseille against RC Strasbourg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.10	+4.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique de Marseille	55.0%	55.0%	+0.0 pp	1.82
Draw	25.5%	23.1%	+2.4 pp	3.92
RC Strasbourg	19.5%	21.9%	−2.4 pp	5.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique de Marseille to score	87.6%	85.4%	+2.2 pp	1.14
Olympique de Marseille not to score	12.4%	14.6%	−2.2 pp	8.09
RC Strasbourg to score	71.0%	70.9%	+0.1 pp	1.41
RC Strasbourg not to score	29.0%	29.1%	−0.1 pp	3.45
Both teams to score	63.6%	60.8%	+2.9 pp	1.57
Both teams not to score	36.4%	39.2%	−2.9 pp	2.75
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals	59.6%	58.9%	+0.7 pp	1.68
Olympique de Marseille at most 1 goal	40.4%	41.1%	−0.7 pp	2.48
RC Strasbourg 2+ goals	32.2%	35.5%	−3.3 pp	3.11
RC Strasbourg at most 1 goal	67.8%	64.5%	+3.3 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	84.9%	81.1%	+3.8 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.1%	18.9%	−3.8 pp	6.62
Over 2.5 goals	61.3%	60.2%	+1.1 pp	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	38.7%	39.8%	−1.1 pp	2.58

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympique de Marseille sample: 20 matches
RC Strasbourg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.