Olympique Lyonnais 2:0 Angers: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:15

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais Home 2.10 xG · 21 shots

Angers Away 0.38 xG · 8 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympique Lyonnais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Angers's attack: 0.38 xG against 0.94 projected (−0.56). Olympique Lyonnais produced 2.10 xG against 1.69 projected (+0.41).

Goals

38' Ernest Nuamah Olympique Lyonnais · 0.25 xG chance 1–0
86' Corentin Tolisso Olympique Lyonnais · 0.22 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympique Lyonnais: 54% What happened
Draw: 28%
Angers: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympique Lyonnais 1.69 2.10 +0.41

Angers 0.94 0.38 -0.56

Angers produced 0.56 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympique Lyonnais Angers

Shots: 21; 8
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 14; 4
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.62; 0.37
Set-piece xG: 0.45; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.10 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.38 for Angers.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.46 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Olympique Lyonnais
Angers
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique Lyonnais

1.59 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 2.85 created, 0.71 conceded against Auxerre
D 0.50 created, 0.30 conceded against Paris FC
W 3.13 created, 1.37 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 0.99 created, 1.37 conceded against RC Lens
W 1.46 created, 1.50 conceded against Nice
L 0.62 created, 0.87 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain

Angers

1.37 xG created 1.83 xGA

L 1.66 created, 1.54 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 0.59 created, 1.31 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.26 created, 1.16 conceded against Troyes
L 1.39 created, 3.71 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 2.02 created, 2.74 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 0.28 created, 0.54 conceded against Lorient

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympique Lyonnais: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympique Lyonnais against Angers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+33.1%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	8.00	+28.1%	Lost
Angers to win	7.00	+24.5%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	2.50	+19.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+9.9%	Won
Angers to score	1.67	+6.5%	Lost
Angers 2+ goals	4.33	+3.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais	54.2%	66.6%	−12.4 pp	1.85
Draw	28.0%	19.9%	+8.1 pp	3.57
Angers	17.8%	13.5%	+4.3 pp	5.62

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais to score	84.0%	88.1%	−4.1 pp	1.19
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	16.0%	11.9%	+4.1 pp	6.24
Angers to score	63.9%	55.7%	+8.1 pp	1.57
Angers not to score	36.1%	44.3%	−8.1 pp	2.77
Both teams to score	55.3%	52.0%	+3.3 pp	1.81
Both teams not to score	44.7%	48.0%	−3.3 pp	2.24
Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals	52.1%	62.5%	−10.4 pp	1.92
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	47.9%	37.5%	+10.4 pp	2.09
Angers 2+ goals	23.8%	21.7%	+2.1 pp	4.20
Angers at most 1 goal	76.2%	78.3%	−2.1 pp	1.31
Over 1.5 goals	77.9%	78.9%	−1.0 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	22.1%	21.1%	+1.0 pp	4.53
Over 2.5 goals	50.1%	56.9%	−6.8 pp	2.00
Under 2.5 goals	49.9%	43.1%	+6.8 pp	2.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Angers sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.