Paris FC 0:0 Olympique Lyonnais: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Paris FC Home 0.30 xG · 6 shots

Olympique Lyonnais Away 0.50 xG · 5 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

Paris FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Paris FC's attack: 0.30 xG against 1.45 projected (−1.15). Olympique Lyonnais produced 0.50 xG against 1.14 projected (−0.64).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Paris FC: 43%
Draw: 30% What happened
Olympique Lyonnais: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Paris FC 1.45 0.30 -1.15

Olympique Lyonnais 1.14 0.50 -0.64

Paris FC produced 1.15 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Paris FC Olympique Lyonnais

Shots: 6; 5
On target: 4; 0
Inside the box: 3; 3
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.39; 0.32
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.17
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.38 for Paris FC and 0.49 for Olympique Lyonnais.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

11 shots · 0.88 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Paris FC
Olympique Lyonnais
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paris FC

2.21 xG created 0.94 xGA

W 1.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.20 created, 1.77 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 2.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
D 1.80 created, 0.42 conceded against Troyes
W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Nice
W 3.29 created, 1.42 conceded against Olympique de Marseille

Olympique Lyonnais

1.99 xG created 1.28 xGA

W 3.17 created, 0.84 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against Toulouse
L 1.91 created, 1.54 conceded against RC Lens
W 0.70 created, 2.77 conceded against Toulouse
D 1.75 created, 0.69 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.85 created, 0.71 conceded against Auxerre

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paris FC: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Paris FC against Olympique Lyonnais before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	4.33	+26.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+20.7%	Won
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	1.73	+17.6%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+13.4%	Won
Draw	3.70	+12.8%	Won
Paris FC to win	2.55	+8.6%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.50	+5.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris FC	42.6%	37.2%	+5.4 pp	2.35
Draw	30.5%	25.6%	+4.9 pp	3.28
Olympique Lyonnais	26.9%	37.2%	−10.2 pp	3.71

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris FC to score	79.2%	78.3%	+0.9 pp	1.26
Paris FC not to score	20.8%	21.7%	−0.9 pp	4.81
Olympique Lyonnais to score	70.8%	78.3%	−7.5 pp	1.41
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	29.2%	21.7%	+7.5 pp	3.42
Both teams to score	57.9%	62.5%	−4.6 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.1%	37.5%	+4.6 pp	2.37
Paris FC 2+ goals	43.9%	46.3%	−2.5 pp	2.28
Paris FC at most 1 goal	56.1%	53.7%	+2.5 pp	1.78
Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals	31.9%	46.3%	−14.4 pp	3.13
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	68.1%	53.7%	+14.4 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	81.1%	−3.8 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	18.9%	+3.8 pp	4.41
Over 2.5 goals	49.2%	60.2%	−11.0 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.8%	39.8%	+11.0 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Paris FC sample: 20 matches
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.