Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:15
Full timeParis FC 2:1 RC Strasbourg
Paris FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was RC Strasbourg's attack: 0.24 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.86). Paris FC produced 1.05 xG against 1.57 projected (−0.52).
Goals
- 18' Ilan Kebbal Paris FC · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 57' Pablo Pagis Paris FC · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
- 88' Moustapha Mbow (o.g.) RC Strasbourg · 0.15 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Paris FC
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- RC Strasbourg
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RC Strasbourg produced 0.86 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 6
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 12
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.95
- 0.33
- Set-piece xG
- 0.05
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Paris FC's shots add up to 1.00 xG and RC Strasbourg's to 0.37; the published figures are 1.05 and 0.24.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.37 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Paris FC
- RC Strasbourg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.95 xG created 0.90 xGA
- L 1.20 created, 1.77 conceded against Stade Rennais
- W 2.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
- D 1.80 created, 0.42 conceded against Troyes
- W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Nice
- W 3.29 created, 1.42 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
- D 0.30 created, 0.50 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
1.58 xG created 2.16 xGA
- W 2.02 created, 3.06 conceded against Stade Brestois
- W 1.50 created, 1.13 conceded against AS Monaco
- L 0.18 created, 1.86 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
- W 1.83 created, 2.91 conceded against RC Lens
- W 2.95 created, 2.94 conceded against Troyes
- D 1.02 created, 1.05 conceded against AS Monaco
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +11.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +10.5% | Lost |
| RC Strasbourg at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +4.3% | Won |
| RC Strasbourg not to score | 3.40 | +2.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 46.8% | 48.5% | −1.7 pp | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.2% | +4.2 pp | 3.39 |
| RC Strasbourg | 23.7% | 26.3% | −2.6 pp | 4.22 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC to score | 82.0% | 82.8% | −0.8 pp | 1.22 |
| Paris FC not to score | 18.0% | 17.2% | +0.8 pp | 5.55 |
| RC Strasbourg to score | 69.9% | 72.3% | −2.5 pp | 1.43 |
| RC Strasbourg not to score | 30.1% | 27.7% | +2.5 pp | 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 58.9% | +0.1 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.0% | 41.1% | −0.1 pp | 2.44 |
| Paris FC 2+ goals | 48.3% | 51.5% | −3.2 pp | 2.07 |
| Paris FC at most 1 goal | 51.7% | 48.5% | +3.2 pp | 1.93 |
| RC Strasbourg 2+ goals | 30.4% | 37.5% | −7.1 pp | 3.28 |
| RC Strasbourg at most 1 goal | 69.6% | 62.5% | +7.1 pp | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 78.9% | +0.1 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 21.1% | −0.1 pp | 4.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 58.7% | −7.2 pp | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 41.3% | +7.2 pp | 2.06 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Paris FC sample
- 20 matches
- RC Strasbourg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.