Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 20:45
21d 18h to kick-offParis Saint-Germain – Olympique Lyonnais
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 59%
- Draw
- 25%
- Olympique Lyonnais
- 16%
| Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Olympique Lyonnais | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.68 | 4.01 | 6.41 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Paris Saint-Germain
59% Paris Saint-Germain to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 6th
- Paris Saint-Germain attack v Olympique Lyonnais defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 8th
- Paris Saint-Germain defence v Olympique Lyonnais attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.94 – 0.98
- Paris Saint-Germain v Olympique Lyonnais
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Paris Saint-Germain | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.28 · 1st | 1.79 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 2nd | 1.17 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.14 · 2nd | +0.62 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.06 · 2nd | 1.81 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.69 | +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet
- 35%
- Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.5%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Paris Saint-Germain sample
- 20 matches
- Olympique Lyonnais sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Paris Saint-Germain
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Olympique Lyonnais
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.