Stade Brestois 2:0 Olympique de Marseille: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 20/02/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Stade Brestois Home 1.13 xG · 12 shots

Olympique de Marseille Away 1.42 xG · 17 shots

20 The result went against the chances

Goals

10' Ludovic Ajorque Stade Brestois · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
29' Ludovic Ajorque Stade Brestois · 0.03 xG chance 2–0

The shots behind it

Stade Brestois Olympique de Marseille

Shots: 12; 17
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 9; 10
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.00; 0.38
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.25
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.63 for Olympique de Marseille.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Stade Brestois
Olympique de Marseille
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Stade Brestois

1.27 xG created 1.05 xGA

W 1.88 created, 0.74 conceded against Auxerre
L 0.69 created, 1.53 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
L 0.99 created, 0.37 conceded against Toulouse
D 1.69 created, 1.35 conceded against Nice
W 1.71 created, 0.77 conceded against Lorient
D 0.68 created, 1.54 conceded against Lille

Olympique de Marseille

1.57 xG created 2.23 xGA

L 0.75 created, 3.63 conceded against Nantes
W 3.28 created, 0.94 conceded against Angers
W 0.88 created, 0.91 conceded against RC Lens
D 2.41 created, 1.76 conceded against Paris FC
L 0.66 created, 4.14 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
D 1.43 created, 1.97 conceded against RC Strasbourg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Stade Brestois: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Olympique de Marseille 3:0 Stade Brestois 08/11/2025 xG 3.46 – 0.74

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.