Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 18:00
13d 15h to kick-offMŠK Žilina – DAC 1904
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MŠK Žilina
- 38%
- Draw
- 27%
- DAC 1904
- 35%
| MŠK Žilina | Draw | DAC 1904 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.86 |
- Total goals
- 3.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
38% MŠK Žilina to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 3rd
- MŠK Žilina attack v DAC 1904 defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 1st
- MŠK Žilina defence v DAC 1904 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.15 vs +0.63
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.67 – 1.61
- MŠK Žilina v DAC 1904
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MŠK Žilina | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.88 · 4th | (better) 2.10 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.44 · 5th | (better) 1.38 · 4th |
| xGD / match | +0.45 · 4th | (better) +0.73 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.64 · 4th | (better) 1.91 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.15 | (better) +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- MŠK Žilina clean sheet
- 18%
- MŠK Žilina 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MŠK Žilina
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · DAC 1904
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.