Tuesday, 27/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeCherno More Varna 2:0 FK Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Cherno More Varna's attack: 1.60 xG against 1.12 projected (+0.48).
The model against the result
- Cherno More Varna
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 35%
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Cherno More Varna produced 0.48 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 9
- On target
- 3
- 0
- Inside the box
- 9
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.10
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.18 xGA
- W 1.69 created, 0.89 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- L 0.70 created, 1.34 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D 1.71 created, 1.66 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 1.34 created, 1.38 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 1.30 created, 1.31 conceded against Levski Sofia
1.26 xG created 1.26 xGA
- W 0.49 created, 1.03 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- D 0.95 created, 0.46 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.37 created, 0.99 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 0.50 created, 2.55 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 1.08 created, 1.53 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- L 3.16 created, 0.97 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 qualified edges flagged1 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Septemvri Sofia to win | 5.25 | +48.7% | Lost |
| Cherno More Varna not to score | 4.50 | +32.1% | Lost |
| Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +25.9% | Lost |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 5.00 | +25.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +25.4% | Lost |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 1.73 | +12.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +10.4% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.25 | +9.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 36.8% | 56.8% | −19.9 pp | 2.71 |
| Draw | 34.8% | 25.6% | +9.2 pp | 2.87 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia | 28.3% | 17.6% | +10.7 pp | 3.53 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna to score | 70.7% | 79.2% | −8.5 pp | 1.42 |
| Cherno More Varna not to score | 29.3% | 20.8% | +8.5 pp | 3.41 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 65.3% | 53.7% | +11.6 pp | 1.53 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia not to score | 34.7% | 46.3% | −11.6 pp | 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 44.3% | +3.9 pp | 2.08 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.8% | 55.7% | −3.9 pp | 1.93 |
| Cherno More Varna 2+ goals | 31.3% | 50.0% | −18.7 pp | 3.19 |
| Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal | 68.7% | 50.0% | +18.7 pp | 1.46 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 25.1% | 18.9% | +6.2 pp | 3.98 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia at most 1 goal | 74.9% | 81.1% | −6.2 pp | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.4% | 70.9% | −4.5 pp | 1.51 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 29.1% | +4.5 pp | 2.98 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.0% | 44.7% | −9.7 pp | 2.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.0% | 55.3% | +9.7 pp | 1.54 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cherno More Varna sample
- 20 matches
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.