xgEdge

Expected goals

Cherno More Varna expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Cherno More Varna's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Cherno More Varna xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.05 xG per match
#9/14
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.42
#2 CSKA Sofia 2.13
#3 Levski Sofia 2.09
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.67
#5 Botev Plovdiv 1.61
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.55
#7 FK Dunav Ruse 1.16
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.10
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.05
#10 FK Spartak Varna 0.93
#11 Botev Vratsa 0.93
#12 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.92
#13 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.89
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.75
League avg
1.37
Total
7.35 7 matches
Defence
1.41 xGA per match
#9/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.73
#2 CSKA Sofia 0.90
#3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.92
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.01
#5 Ludogorets 1.02
#6 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.11
#7 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#8 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.31
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.41
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.49
#11 Slavia Sofia 1.60
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.10
#13 FK Spartak Varna 2.11
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 2.31
League avg
1.37
Total
9.89 7 matches
xG difference
-0.36 xGD per match
#9/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.39
#2 Levski Sofia +1.36
#3 CSKA Sofia +1.23
#4 Botev Plovdiv +0.60
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.36
#6 Arda Kardzhali +0.29
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.03
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.19
#9 Cherno More Varna -0.36
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.55
#11 Slavia Sofia -0.85
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia -1.00
#13 FK Dunav Ruse -1.16
#14 FK Spartak Varna -1.18
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.54 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.11 xPts per match
#9/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.19
#2 Levski Sofia 2.19
#3 CSKA Sofia 2.18
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.83
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.59
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.57
#7 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.28
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.28
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.11
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.03
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.81
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.80
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.80
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 0.63
League avg
1.38
Total
7.78 vs 6 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 7 of 10 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Cherno More Varna's underlying numbers sit close to the Parva Liga (Bulgaria) average. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.36 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 6 goals are 1.35 below 7.35 xG, while 3 points are 4.78 below 7.78 xPts — both over the 7 matches with xG. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 7.35 -1.35 scored 1.35 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
12 9.89 +2.11 conceded 2.11 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
3 7.78 -4.78 4.78 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Cherno More Varna are 1.35 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -1.74, against Botev Plovdiv on Sat 01/08.

Goals
6
xG
7.35
Gap
-1.35
Sun 19/07 Sun 26/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 06/09 Fri 11/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.45 -1.49 -1.74 -0.42 -1.30 -1.01 -1.35 +0.45 -1.94 -0.25 +1.32 -0.88 +0.29 -0.34 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Cherno More Varna: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 19/07 Botev Vratsa 1 0.55 +0.45 +0.45
Sun 26/07 FK Spartak Varna 0 1.94 -1.94 -1.49
Sat 01/08 Botev Plovdiv 0 0.25 -0.25 -1.74
Sun 09/08 Ludogorets 2 0.68 +1.32 -0.42
Sun 06/09 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 0.88 -0.88 -1.30
Fri 11/09 Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1.71 +0.29 -1.01
Sat 19/09 Arda Kardzhali 1 1.34 -0.34 -1.35

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Cherno More Varna xG trend

Current form -0.26 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against Botev Plovdiv on Sat 01/08 (-1.44).

npxG · last 6
1.13
npxGA · last 6
1.39
-2 -1 0 +1 -0.40 Sun 19/07 +0.34 Sun 26/07 -1.44 Sat 01/08 -0.82 Sun 09/08 +0.38 Sun 06/09 +0.05 Fri 11/09 -0.04 Sat 19/09 -0.28 season avg
Cherno More Varna: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 19/07 Botev Vratsa 0.55 0.95 -0.40 -0.40
Sun 26/07 FK Spartak Varna 1.94 1.60 +0.34 -0.03
Sat 01/08 Botev Plovdiv 0.24 1.68 -1.44 -0.50
Sun 09/08 Ludogorets 0.68 1.50 -0.82 -0.58
Sun 06/09 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.89 0.51 +0.38 -0.39
Fri 11/09 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.71 1.66 +0.05 -0.31
Sat 19/09 Arda Kardzhali 1.34 1.38 -0.04 -0.28

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.05 npxG and 1.33 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 9 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 8 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · number 9 hardest of 14

  1. Arda Kardzhali Away +0.15
  2. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.37
  3. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away +0.04
  4. CSKA Sofia Away +0.55
  5. FK Dunav Ruse Home −0.38
  6. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Away +0.18
  7. Ludogorets Home +0.68
  8. Botev Plovdiv Away +0.35
  9. FK Spartak Varna Home −0.64
  10. Botev Vratsa Away −0.24

Last 5

0.00 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 14

  1. Arda Kardzhali Away +0.15
  2. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.37
  3. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away +0.04
  4. CSKA Sofia Away +0.55
  5. FK Dunav Ruse Home −0.38

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Cherno More Varna shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Cherno More Varna take 11.1 shots a match (league 11.4) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #7 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #13 for quality. 47% of their shots come from inside the box (league 57%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.1 shots per match
#7/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 19.7
#2 Levski Sofia 16.3
#3 Ludogorets 13.5
#4 Botev Plovdiv 12.8
#5 Arda Kardzhali 12.6
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 12.6
#7 Cherno More Varna 11.1
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.0
#10 Botev Vratsa 8.6
#11 FK Dunav Ruse 8.5
#12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 8.3
#13 FK Spartak Varna 8.1
#14 Slavia Sofia 6.7
League avg
11.4
Total
78 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#13/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Ludogorets 0.17
#2 Levski Sofia 0.13
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.12
#4 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#6 Botev Plovdiv 0.12
#7 FK Spartak Varna 0.12
#8 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#9 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.11
#10 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.10
#11 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#12 CSKA Sofia 0.10
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.09
#14 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
7.35 npxG from 78 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.9 shots per match
=6/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.0
#2 CSKA Sofia 8.3
#3 FK Septemvri Sofia 8.6
#4 Ludogorets 9.3
#5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9.7
=6 Botev Vratsa 9.9
=6 Cherno More Varna 9.9
#8 Arda Kardzhali 10.1
#9 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.2
#10 Botev Plovdiv 11.8
=11 FK Spartak Varna 15.0
=11 Lokomotiv Sofia 15.0
#13 Slavia Sofia 15.3
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 18.7
League avg
11.4
Total
69 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#13/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#2 Levski Sofia 0.09
#3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.09
#4 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.11
#7 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#8 Ludogorets 0.11
#9 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#10 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.13
#11 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.13
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.13
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.13
#14 Botev Vratsa 0.15
League avg
0.11
Total
9.28 npxGA from 69 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

47% inside the box

League avg 57%

From 37 of 78 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 57%

From 44 of 69 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Cherno More Varna home and away xG

Cherno More Varna per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3 with xG 6 4 with xG
xG / match 1.44 0.76
xGA / match 1.59 1.28
xGD / match -0.14 -0.53
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.24 1.02

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Cherno More Varna match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
4 3 with xG
xG / match
1.44
xGA / match
1.59
xGD / match
-0.14
Points
4 of 12
  1. Fri 11/09 Lokomotiv Sofia H xG 1.71 xGA 1.66 xGD +0.05
  2. Fri 21/08 FK Dunav Ruse H
  3. Sun 09/08 Ludogorets H xG 0.68 xGA 1.50 xGD -0.82
  4. Sun 26/07 FK Spartak Varna H xG 1.94 xGA 1.60 xGD +0.34

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Cherno More Varna in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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