Monday, 02/11/2026 at 17:30
Full timeCherno More Varna 1:0 Botev Vratsa
Cherno More Varna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Cherno More Varna's attack: 1.80 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.50).
The model against the result
- Cherno More Varna
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Botev Vratsa
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Cherno More Varna produced 0.50 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 12
- On target
- 3
- 5
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.10
Recent form
1.26 xG created 1.18 xGA
- L 0.70 created, 1.34 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D 1.71 created, 1.66 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 1.34 created, 1.38 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 1.30 created, 1.31 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 1.60 created, 0.87 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
1.32 xG created 1.49 xGA
- L 1.23 created, 1.39 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- W 0.99 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- D 0.79 created, 2.01 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 1.37 created, 0.54 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- L 2.56 created, 2.51 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- D 0.99 created, 1.14 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged0 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa to win | 4.20 | +14.9% | Lost |
| Botev Vratsa to score | 1.57 | +7.0% | Lost |
| Botev Vratsa 2+ goals | 3.75 | +7.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.25 | +5.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 40.3% | 49.0% | −8.7 pp | 2.48 |
| Draw | 32.4% | 28.8% | +3.6 pp | 3.09 |
| Botev Vratsa | 27.4% | 22.3% | +5.1 pp | 3.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna to score | 75.6% | 75.0% | +0.6 pp | 1.32 |
| Cherno More Varna not to score | 24.4% | 25.0% | −0.6 pp | 4.09 |
| Botev Vratsa to score | 68.1% | 58.9% | +9.2 pp | 1.47 |
| Botev Vratsa not to score | 31.9% | 41.1% | −9.2 pp | 3.14 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 46.3% | +7.1 pp | 1.87 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.6% | 53.7% | −7.1 pp | 2.15 |
| Cherno More Varna 2+ goals | 38.3% | 42.3% | −4.0 pp | 2.61 |
| Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal | 61.7% | 57.7% | +4.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Botev Vratsa 2+ goals | 28.5% | 25.0% | +3.5 pp | 3.51 |
| Botev Vratsa at most 1 goal | 71.5% | 75.0% | −3.5 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 68.7% | +3.8 pp | 1.38 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 31.3% | −3.8 pp | 3.65 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 41.8% | +0.9 pp | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 58.2% | −0.9 pp | 1.75 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cherno More Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.