Monday, 26/10/2026 at 18:30
Full timeCSKA Sofia 2:0 Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Ludogorets's attack: 0.63 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.58). CSKA Sofia produced 1.79 xG against 1.38 projected (+0.41).
The model against the result
- CSKA Sofia
- 39% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Ludogorets
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Ludogorets produced 0.58 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 15
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 8
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.04
Recent form
2.11 xG created 0.85 xGA
- W 1.34 created, 0.70 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- D 3.50 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 3.10 created, 0.87 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- W 2.19 created, 1.07 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 1.27 created, 0.62 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W 1.29 created, 1.03 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
2.20 xG created 0.77 xGA
- W 2.58 created, 0.81 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- D 0.65 created, 1.64 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- D 2.57 created, 0.87 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 3.62 created, 0.75 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 2.55 created, 0.50 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 1.21 created, 0.05 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 qualified edges flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.40 | +2.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 38.6% | 44.0% | −5.4 pp | 2.59 |
| Draw | 31.0% | 27.2% | +3.8 pp | 3.23 |
| Ludogorets | 30.4% | 28.9% | +1.6 pp | 3.29 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia to score | 77.5% | 78.3% | −0.8 pp | 1.29 |
| CSKA Sofia not to score | 22.5% | 21.7% | +0.8 pp | 4.45 |
| Ludogorets to score | 73.2% | 70.9% | +2.3 pp | 1.37 |
| Ludogorets not to score | 26.8% | 29.1% | −2.3 pp | 3.73 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 55.7% | +2.8 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.4% | 44.3% | −2.8 pp | 2.41 |
| CSKA Sofia 2+ goals | 41.0% | 46.3% | −5.3 pp | 2.44 |
| CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal | 59.0% | 53.7% | +5.3 pp | 1.70 |
| Ludogorets 2+ goals | 34.8% | 35.5% | −0.7 pp | 2.87 |
| Ludogorets at most 1 goal | 65.2% | 64.5% | +0.7 pp | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | 76.6% | +0.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 23.4% | −0.8 pp | 4.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 52.6% | −3.5 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 47.4% | +3.5 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 29 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.