Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
18d 16h to kick-offLokomotiv Sofia – Botev Vratsa
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 35%
- Draw
- 31%
- Botev Vratsa
- 33%
| Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.85 | 3.18 | 2.99 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Lokomotiv Sofia to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 10th
- Lokomotiv Sofia attack v Botev Vratsa defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 12th
- Lokomotiv Sofia defence v Botev Vratsa attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.94 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.25
- Lokomotiv Sofia v Botev Vratsa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.10 · 8th | 0.93 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 2.10 · 13th | (better) 1.49 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -1.00 · 12th | (better) -0.55 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 0.80 · 13th | (better) 1.03 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.94 | (better) -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Lokomotiv Sofia clean sheet
- 26%
- Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Botev Vratsa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.