Friday, 30/10/2026 at 20:45
26d 18h to kick-offSligo Rovers – Derry City
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sligo Rovers
- 21%
- Draw
- 29%
- Derry City
- 51%
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.83 | 3.50 | 1.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Derry City
51% Derry City to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 10th
- Derry City attack v Sligo Rovers defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 10th
- Derry City defence v Sligo Rovers attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.10 vs -1.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.03 – 1.64
- Sligo Rovers v Derry City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sligo Rovers | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.03 · 10th | (better) 1.18 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 10th | (better) 1.18 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.85 · 10th | (better) +0.01 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.87 · 10th | (better) 1.37 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.19 | (better) +0.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Derry City clean sheet
- 33%
- Derry City 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Derry City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sligo Rovers
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Derry City
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.