Shelbourne 0:1 Derry City: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Shelbourne Home 0.82 xG

Derry City Away 1.05 xG

01 The chances were evenly matched

Shelbourne were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Derry City won 1–0. The biggest difference was Shelbourne's attack: 0.82 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.63).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Shelbourne: 43%
Draw: 31%
Derry City: 27% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Shelbourne 1.45 0.82 -0.63

Derry City 1.13 1.05 -0.08

Shelbourne produced 0.63 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Shelbourne Derry City

Shots: 11; 18
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 7; 12
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.06

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Shelbourne

1.45 xG created 1.63 xGA

D 1.12 created, 1.81 conceded against Sligo Rovers
W 1.93 created, 0.95 conceded against Dundalk FC
L 1.47 created, 1.67 conceded against Waterford FC
L 1.12 created, 3.15 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 2.26 created, 0.54 conceded against Galway United
D 0.82 created, 1.65 conceded against Shamrock Rovers

Derry City

1.29 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 1.45 created, 0.41 conceded against Drogheda United
L 1.54 created, 3.29 conceded against Waterford FC
D 0.50 created, 1.67 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
W 1.68 created, 0.23 conceded against Sligo Rovers
L 1.39 created, 2.32 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.20 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Shelbourne: 1 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Shelbourne against Derry City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+2.6%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Shelbourne	42.8%	40.4%	+2.4 pp	2.33
Draw	30.5%	28.6%	+1.9 pp	3.27
Derry City	26.6%	31.0%	−4.4 pp	3.76

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	53.3%	+4.1 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.6%	46.7%	−4.1 pp	2.35
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	76.6%	+0.4 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	23.4%	−0.4 pp	4.34
Over 2.5 goals	48.7%	52.6%	−3.9 pp	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	51.3%	47.4%	+3.9 pp	1.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Shelbourne sample: 20 matches
Derry City sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.