Derry City 1:0 St. Patrick's Athletic: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Monday, 19/10/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Derry City Home 0.66 xG

St. Patrick's Athletic Away 2.59 xG

10 The result went against the chances

St. Patrick's Athletic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Derry City won 1–0. The biggest difference was St. Patrick's Athletic's attack: 2.59 xG against 1.40 projected (+1.19). Derry City produced 0.66 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.54).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Derry City: 29% What happened
Draw: 31%
St. Patrick's Athletic: 40%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Derry City 1.20 0.66 -0.54

St. Patrick's Athletic 1.40 2.59 +1.19

St. Patrick's Athletic produced 1.19 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Derry City St. Patrick's Athletic

Shots: 10; 29
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 6; 18
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Derry City

1.10 xG created 1.17 xGA

L 1.39 created, 2.32 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.20 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
W 1.05 created, 0.82 conceded against Shelbourne
D 0.89 created, 1.50 conceded against Waterford FC
W 0.74 created, 0.61 conceded against Galway United
L 1.32 created, 0.88 conceded against Drogheda United

St. Patrick's Athletic

2.02 xG created 0.82 xGA

W 1.83 created, 0.39 conceded against Drogheda United
L 1.42 created, 2.27 conceded against Waterford FC
W 1.03 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
W 2.94 created, 0.26 conceded against Dundalk FC
W 2.38 created, 0.60 conceded against Sligo Rovers
L 2.53 created, 0.52 conceded against Shelbourne

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Derry City: 1 won · 4 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Derry City against St. Patrick's Athletic before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+5.5%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+3.4%	Lost
Derry City 2+ goals	3.00	+2.5%	Lost
Derry City to score	1.40	+1.7%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	+1.1%	Lost
Draw	3.25	+0.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Derry City	29.5%	27.9%	+1.6 pp	3.39
Draw	30.9%	27.9%	+3.0 pp	3.24
St. Patrick's Athletic	39.7%	44.2%	−4.6 pp	2.52

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Derry City to score	72.7%	66.3%	+6.4 pp	1.38
Derry City not to score	27.3%	33.7%	−6.4 pp	3.66
St. Patrick's Athletic to score	78.2%	75.0%	+3.2 pp	1.28
St. Patrick's Athletic not to score	21.8%	25.0%	−3.2 pp	4.58
Both teams to score	58.6%	52.0%	+6.6 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.4%	48.0%	−6.6 pp	2.42
Derry City 2+ goals	34.2%	31.3%	+2.9 pp	2.93
Derry City at most 1 goal	65.8%	68.7%	−2.9 pp	1.52
St. Patrick's Athletic 2+ goals	42.0%	42.3%	−0.4 pp	2.38
St. Patrick's Athletic at most 1 goal	58.0%	57.7%	+0.4 pp	1.72
Over 1.5 goals	77.5%	70.9%	+6.6 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.5%	29.1%	−6.6 pp	4.45
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	46.1%	+3.3 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	53.9%	−3.3 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Derry City sample: 20 matches
St. Patrick's Athletic sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.