Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeDrogheda United 2:0 Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Drogheda United's attack: 1.42 xG against 1.75 projected (−0.33).
The model against the result
- Drogheda United
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Sligo Rovers
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Drogheda United produced 0.33 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 11
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 12
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.11
Recent form
1.02 xG created 1.82 xGA
- W 1.25 created, 1.44 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- D 0.94 created, 0.76 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- D 0.60 created, 2.18 conceded against Galway United
- L 0.39 created, 1.83 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- L 1.89 created, 3.04 conceded against Dundalk FC
0.96 xG created 1.63 xGA
- L 1.67 created, 2.28 conceded against Galway United
- D 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 1.35 created, 1.74 conceded against Dundalk FC
- L 0.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Derry City
- D 0.66 created, 1.59 conceded against Waterford FC
- L 0.15 created, 1.48 conceded against Bohemian FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +16.9% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +10.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +4.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 52.4% | 53.6% | −1.2 pp | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27.4% | 25.3% | +2.1 pp | 3.65 |
| Sligo Rovers | 20.2% | 21.0% | −0.9 pp | 4.96 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 48.0% | +11.9 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.1% | 52.0% | −11.9 pp | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | 72.0% | +9.3 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.7% | 28.0% | −9.3 pp | 5.34 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 47.4% | +7.8 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 52.6% | −7.8 pp | 2.23 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.