Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeSt. Patrick's Athletic 0:2 Waterford FC
St. Patrick's Athletic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. Waterford FC won 2–0. The biggest difference was Waterford FC's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.05 projected (+1.22). St. Patrick's Athletic produced 1.42 xG against 2.36 projected (−0.94).
The model against the result
- St. Patrick's Athletic
- 67%
- Draw
- 21%
- Waterford FC
- 13% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Waterford FC produced 1.22 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 21
- On target
- 6
- 6
- Inside the box
- 10
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.11
Recent form
2.21 xG created 0.89 xGA
- W 2.06 created, 0.48 conceded against Galway United
- D 2.55 created, 1.43 conceded against Waterford FC
- D 1.98 created, 1.43 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 1.67 created, 0.50 conceded against Derry City
- W 3.15 created, 1.12 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 1.83 created, 0.39 conceded against Drogheda United
1.71 xG created 1.42 xGA
- W 3.29 created, 1.54 conceded against Derry City
- D 1.43 created, 2.55 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 0.62 created, 1.27 conceded against Galway United
- W 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 1.66 created, 1.04 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 1.59 created, 0.66 conceded against Sligo Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
- Waterford FC 1:1 St. Patrick's Athletic 10/07/2026 xG 1.43 – 2.55
- St. Patrick's Athletic 4:1 Waterford FC 08/05/2026 xG 3.63 – 1.34
- Waterford FC 0:2 St. Patrick's Athletic 20/03/2026 xG 0.30 – 2.04
- St. Patrick's Athletic 1:1 Waterford FC 24/10/2025 xG 2.53 – 1.53
- Waterford FC 0:2 St. Patrick's Athletic 03/08/2025 xG 0.57 – 1.52
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC 2+ goals | 4.50 | +28.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +22.0% | Lost |
| Waterford FC to score | 1.73 | +17.6% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +7.6% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +3.5% | Won |
| Waterford FC to win | 8.00 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Patrick's Athletic | 66.6% | 69.6% | −3.0 pp | 1.50 |
| Draw | 20.7% | 19.1% | +1.6 pp | 4.84 |
| Waterford FC | 12.7% | 11.3% | +1.4 pp | 7.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Patrick's Athletic to score | 92.2% | 89.4% | +2.9 pp | 1.08 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic not to score | 7.8% | 10.6% | −2.9 pp | 12.85 |
| Waterford FC to score | 68.1% | 53.7% | +14.4 pp | 1.47 |
| Waterford FC not to score | 31.9% | 46.3% | −14.4 pp | 3.13 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 50.0% | +13.9 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.1% | 50.0% | −13.9 pp | 2.77 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic 2+ goals | 70.7% | 68.7% | +1.9 pp | 1.41 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic at most 1 goal | 29.3% | 31.3% | −1.9 pp | 3.41 |
| Waterford FC 2+ goals | 28.5% | 20.8% | +7.7 pp | 3.51 |
| Waterford FC at most 1 goal | 71.5% | 79.2% | −7.7 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.7% | 81.1% | +7.6 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.3% | 18.9% | −7.6 pp | 8.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 59.9% | +8.5 pp | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.5% | 40.1% | −8.5 pp | 3.17 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- St. Patrick's Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.