Brighton & Hove Albion 4:0 Aston Villa: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion Home 3.77 xG · 22 shots

Aston Villa Away 0.29 xG · 6 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Brighton & Hove Albion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Brighton & Hove Albion's attack: 3.77 xG against 1.60 projected (+2.17). Aston Villa produced 0.29 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.80).

Goals

8' Victor Lindelöf (o.g.) Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
18' Maxim De Cuyper Brighton & Hove Albion · 1.00 xG chance 2–0
30' Jack Hinshelwood Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.83 xG chance 3–0
31' Jack Hinshelwood Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.42 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Brighton & Hove Albion: 48% What happened
Draw: 29%
Aston Villa: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Brighton & Hove Albion 1.60 3.77 +2.17

Aston Villa 1.09 0.29 -0.80

Brighton & Hove Albion produced 2.17 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Brighton & Hove Albion Aston Villa

Shots: 22; 6
On target: 7; 0
Inside the box: 15; 2
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.05
Open play xG: 3.58; 0.19
Set-piece xG: 0.26; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Brighton & Hove Albion's shots add up to 3.84 xG and Aston Villa's to 0.30; the published figures are 3.77 and 0.29.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 4.14 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brighton & Hove Albion

1.66 xG created 1.19 xGA

D 0.82 created, 1.09 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
W 2.14 created, 0.37 conceded against Chelsea
L 1.53 created, 3.16 conceded against Newcastle United
W 1.62 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 3.06 created, 0.39 conceded against Leeds United
L 0.79 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester United

Aston Villa

1.53 xG created 1.41 xGA

W 2.84 created, 1.73 conceded against Sunderland
L 0.93 created, 1.18 conceded against Fulham
L 0.32 created, 0.99 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
D 1.44 created, 1.79 conceded against Burnley
W 1.85 created, 1.43 conceded against Liverpool
W 1.77 created, 1.34 conceded against Manchester City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Brighton & Hove Albion: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Brighton & Hove Albion against Aston Villa before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Brighton & Hove Albion to win	2.25	+7.3%	Won
Aston Villa at most 1 goal	1.53	+7.2%	Won
Aston Villa not to score	3.50	+6.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+5.9%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+5.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brighton & Hove Albion	47.7%	41.7%	+6.0 pp	2.10
Draw	29.2%	26.0%	+3.1 pp	3.43
Aston Villa	23.1%	32.3%	−9.2 pp	4.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brighton & Hove Albion to score	82.3%	79.2%	+3.1 pp	1.22
Brighton & Hove Albion not to score	17.7%	20.8%	−3.1 pp	5.64
Aston Villa to score	69.5%	73.1%	−3.6 pp	1.44
Aston Villa not to score	30.5%	26.9%	+3.6 pp	3.28
Both teams to score	58.9%	58.9%	+0.0 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.1%	41.1%	−0.0 pp	2.43
Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals	49.0%	50.0%	−1.0 pp	2.04
Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal	51.0%	50.0%	+1.0 pp	1.96
Aston Villa 2+ goals	30.1%	39.2%	−9.2 pp	3.32
Aston Villa at most 1 goal	69.9%	60.8%	+9.2 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	79.2%	80.8%	−1.6 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.8%	19.2%	+1.6 pp	4.80
Over 2.5 goals	51.9%	57.9%	−6.0 pp	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	48.1%	42.1%	+6.0 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Brighton & Hove Albion sample: 20 matches
Aston Villa sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.