Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeManchester United 5:2 Ipswich Town
Manchester United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Manchester United's attack: 4.56 xG against 1.73 projected (+2.83). Ipswich Town produced 2.01 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.96).
Goals
- 29' Leif Davis Ipswich Town · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
- 40' Bruno Fernandes Manchester United · 0.31 xG chance 1–1
- 56' Jacob Greaves (o.g.) Manchester United · 0.10 xG chance 2–1
- 61' Bruno Fernandes (pen.) Manchester United · 0.82 xG chance 3–1
- 68' Bruno Fernandes Manchester United · 0.61 xG chance 4–1
- 82' Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United · 0.43 xG chance 5–1
- 90' Chuba Akpom Ipswich Town · 1.00 xG chance 5–2
The model against the result
- Manchester United
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Ipswich Town
- 20%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Manchester United produced 2.83 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 33
- 9
- On target
- 12
- 5
- Inside the box
- 19
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 3.96
- 1.96
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.08
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.29 for Manchester United and 2.01 for Ipswich Town.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
42 shots · 7.10 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Manchester United
- Ipswich Town
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.05 xG created 1.25 xGA
- W 1.27 created, 1.43 conceded against Brentford
- W 2.34 created, 0.89 conceded against Liverpool
- D 0.62 created, 1.25 conceded against Sunderland
- W 4.57 created, 1.88 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.66 created, 0.79 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.81 created, 1.26 conceded against Hull City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to win | 8.00 | +40.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.00 | +24.6% | Lost |
| Manchester United not to score | 9.00 | +23.9% | Lost |
| Manchester United at most 1 goal | 2.75 | +22.7% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 4.00 | +22.3% | Won |
| Ipswich Town to score | 1.62 | +9.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +6.1% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +6.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 52.3% | 69.0% | −16.8 pp | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27.7% | 19.1% | +8.6 pp | 3.61 |
| Ipswich Town | 20.0% | 11.9% | +8.1 pp | 4.99 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score | 84.5% | 89.4% | −4.9 pp | 1.18 |
| Manchester United not to score | 15.5% | 10.6% | +4.9 pp | 6.46 |
| Ipswich Town to score | 67.8% | 57.7% | +10.2 pp | 1.47 |
| Ipswich Town not to score | 32.2% | 42.3% | −10.2 pp | 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 52.0% | +6.9 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.1% | 48.0% | −6.9 pp | 2.44 |
| Manchester United 2+ goals | 53.3% | 66.3% | −13.0 pp | 1.88 |
| Manchester United at most 1 goal | 46.7% | 33.7% | +13.0 pp | 2.14 |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 28.2% | 23.4% | +4.8 pp | 3.54 |
| Ipswich Town at most 1 goal | 71.8% | 76.6% | −4.8 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | 81.1% | −0.6 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.6% | 18.9% | +0.6 pp | 5.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 62.0% | −8.1 pp | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 38.0% | +8.1 pp | 2.17 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester United sample
- 20 matches
- Ipswich Town sample
- 1 match
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.