Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Hull City – Liverpool
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hull City
- 33%
- Draw
- 31%
- Liverpool
- 36%
| Hull City | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.03 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Liverpool to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- Liverpool attack v Hull City defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 16th
- Liverpool defence v Hull City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.26 – 1.31
- Hull City v Liverpool
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Hull City
17 listed-
Charlie Hughes 0% chance
Defender · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Enis Destan 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Konyaspor permanently
-
Jack Butland 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Arm injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Cartwright 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Grimsby Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cody Drameh 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Genoa permanently
-
Abu Kamara 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Portsmouth permanently
-
Darko Gyabi 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Ilyas Ansah 0% chance
Forward · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Liam Millar 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Birmingham on loan for the rest of the season
-
David Akintola 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Omonoia FC permanently
-
Mason Burstow 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hidemasa Morita 0% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Thimothée Lo-Tutala 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Colchester United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Matty Jacob 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Newport County on loan until January
-
Eliot Matazo 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Matt Targett 75% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Brooke Norton-Cuffy 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hull City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 16th | (better) 1.67 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.48 · 10th | (better) 1.22 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.37 · 15th | (better) +0.45 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 16th | (better) 1.69 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Liverpool clean sheet
- 26%
- Liverpool 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hull City sample
- 5 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hull City
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Liverpool
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Hull City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.