Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:30
7d 16h to kick-offLiverpool – Manchester City
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Liverpool
- 39%
- Draw
- 29%
- Manchester City
- 32%
| Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.58 | 3.46 | 3.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Liverpool
- Model
- 38.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.1%
- Probability gap
- +1.6 pp
- Edge
- −3.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.58
- Market odds
- 2.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.71
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.8%
- Probability gap
- +3.1 pp
- Edge
- +4.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.46
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.64
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.8%
-
Manchester City
- Model
- 32.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.1%
- Probability gap
- −4.8 pp
- Edge
- −19.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.09
- Market odds
- 2.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.8%
Outcomes with value
Manchester City at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Manchester City at most 1 goal
Model 58.0% vs. bookmaker 53.7%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Liverpool
39% Liverpool to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 5th
- Liverpool attack v Manchester City defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 2nd
- Liverpool defence v Manchester City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs +0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.54 – 1.40
- Liverpool v Manchester City
Squad news
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Manchester City
9 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.67 · 7th | (better) 2.10 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.22 · 3rd | 1.45 · 9th |
| xGD / match | +0.45 · 7th | (better) +0.65 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.69 · 4th | (better) 1.87 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.62 | +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Liverpool clean sheet
- 22%
- Liverpool 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Liverpool
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Manchester City
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.