Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 15:00
21d 8h to kick-offLiverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Liverpool
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- 30%
| Liverpool | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.43 | 3.52 | 3.29 |
- Total goals
- 2.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Liverpool
41% Liverpool to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 12th
- Liverpool attack v Brighton & Hove Albion defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 3rd
- Liverpool defence v Brighton & Hove Albion attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs +0.33
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.38
- Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion
Squad news
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Brighton & Hove Albion
15 listed-
Jack Hinshelwood 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Mats Wieffer 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Femi Azeez 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Yankuba Minteh 0% chance
Midfielder · Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
-
Stefanos Tzimas 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Evan Ferguson 0% chance
Forward · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Mitoma Kaoru 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Igor Julio 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley permanently
-
Facundo Buonanotte 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Elche on loan for the rest of the season
-
Harry Howell 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tom Watson 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Zadok Yohanna 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Amario Cozier-Duberry 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Middlesbrough on loan for the rest of the season
-
Lewis Dunk 75% chance
Defender · Neck injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Pascal Struijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.67 · 7th | (better) 2.31 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.22 · 3rd | 1.74 · 13th |
| xGD / match | +0.45 · 7th | (better) +0.57 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.69 · 4th | 1.62 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.62 | +0.33 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Liverpool clean sheet
- 22%
- Liverpool 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Brighton & Hove Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Liverpool
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Brighton & Hove Albion
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.