xgEdge

Expected goals

Manchester United expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Manchester United's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Manchester United xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.93 xG per match
#4/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
9.66 5 matches
Defence
1.40 xGA per match
#8/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
7.00 5 matches
xG difference
+0.53 xGD per match
#5/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
+2.66 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.60 xPts per match
#7/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
7.99 vs 5 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Manchester United's underlying numbers are among the best in Premier League. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.53 per match, built on the league's highest shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 8 goals are 1.66 below 9.66 xG, while 5 points are 2.99 below 7.99 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
8 9.66 -1.66 scored 1.66 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
8 7.00 +1.00 conceded 1.00 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 7.99 -2.99 2.99 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Manchester United are 1.66 goals below their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at -1.81, against Hull City on Sat 22/08.

Goals
8
xG
9.66
Gap
-1.66
Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.81 -1.37 -0.06 -1.06 -1.66 -1.81 +0.44 +1.31 -1.00 -0.60 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Manchester United: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Hull City 0 1.81 -1.81 -1.81
Sun 30/08 Ipswich Town 5 4.56 +0.44 -1.37
Sun 06/09 Everton 2 0.69 +1.31 -0.06
Sun 13/09 Manchester City 0 1.00 -1.00 -1.06
Sun 20/09 Fulham 1 1.60 -0.60 -1.66

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Manchester United xG trend

Current form +0.47 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches. The worst was against Everton on Sun 06/09 (-0.29).

npxG · last 5
1.87
npxGA · last 5
1.40
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.50 Sat 22/08 +2.28 Sun 30/08 -0.29 Sun 06/09 -0.04 Sun 13/09 -0.08 Sun 20/09 +0.47 season avg
Manchester United: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Hull City 1.81 1.31 +0.50 +0.50
Sun 30/08 Ipswich Town 4.29 2.01 +2.28 +1.39
Sun 06/09 Everton 0.72 1.01 -0.29 +0.83
Sun 13/09 Manchester City 0.95 0.99 -0.04 +0.61
Sun 20/09 Fulham 1.59 1.67 -0.08 +0.47

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.87 npxG and 1.40 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 20 in Premier League
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

0.00 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 20

  1. Fulham Away −0.02
  2. Manchester City Home +0.34
  3. Everton Away −0.05
  4. Ipswich Town Home −0.14
  5. Hull City Away −0.14

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Manchester United shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. Manchester United take 22.6 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #1 in Premier League for volume and #18 for quality. 56% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
22.6 shots per match
#1/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
113 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#18/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
9.36 npxG from 113 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.6 shots per match
=2/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
53 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#17/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
6.99 npxGA from 53 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

56% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 63 of 113 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

72% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 38 of 53 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.3 of 9.3 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

70% open play · 30% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.1 of 7.0 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Manchester United home and away xG

Manchester United per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 2.78 1.37
xGA / match 1.56 1.30
xGD / match +1.22 +0.07
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.92 1.38

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Manchester United match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.93
xGA / match
1.40
xGD / match
+0.53
Points
5 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 Fulham A xG 1.60 xGA 1.62 xGD -0.02
  2. Sun 13/09 Manchester City H xG 1.00 xGA 1.10 xGD -0.10
  3. Sun 06/09 Everton A Weakest underlying xG 0.69 xGA 1.01 xGD -0.32
  4. Sun 30/08 Ipswich Town H Best underlying xG 4.56 xGA 2.01 xGD +2.55
  5. Sat 22/08 Hull City A xG 1.81 xGA 1.26 xGD +0.55

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.56. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Manchester United in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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