Leeds United 3:1 Nottingham Forest: xG & match report · Premier League

Friday, 06/02/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Leeds United Home 2.50 xG · 14 shots

Nottingham Forest Away 1.13 xG · 16 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

26' Jayden Bogle Leeds United · 0.61 xG chance 1–0
30' Noah Okafor Leeds United · 0.52 xG chance 2–0
49' Dominic Calvert-Lewin Leeds United · 0.25 xG chance 3–0
86' Lorenzo Lucca Nottingham Forest · 0.15 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Leeds United Nottingham Forest

Shots: 14; 16
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 13; 9
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.76; 0.94
Set-piece xG: 0.75; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.51 for Leeds United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.64 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Leeds United
Nottingham Forest
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Leeds United

1.08 xG created 1.63 xGA

D 0.69 created, 2.08 conceded against Liverpool
D 0.90 created, 1.58 conceded against Manchester United
L 2.05 created, 2.72 conceded against Newcastle United
W 1.43 created, 0.39 conceded against Fulham
D 1.23 created, 0.60 conceded against Everton
L 0.15 created, 2.39 conceded against Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

0.90 xG created 1.60 xGA

L 1.55 created, 1.26 conceded against Everton
L 0.89 created, 1.59 conceded against Aston Villa
W 1.38 created, 0.95 conceded against West Ham United
D 0.34 created, 2.10 conceded against Arsenal
W 0.76 created, 1.76 conceded against Brentford
D 0.49 created, 1.92 conceded against Crystal Palace

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Leeds United: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Nottingham Forest 3:1 Leeds United 09/11/2025 xG 2.55 – 0.69

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.