Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 18:30
34d 18h to kick-offNottingham Forest – Manchester City
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Nottingham Forest
- 34%
- Draw
- 29%
- Manchester City
- 37%
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.96 | 3.47 | 2.68 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Manchester City to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 7th
- Manchester City attack v Nottingham Forest defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 13th
- Manchester City defence v Nottingham Forest attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +0.55
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.43 – 1.51
- Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
Squad news
Nottingham Forest
7 listed-
Nikola Milenković 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Zach Abbott 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Southampton on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tyler Bindon 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Charlton Athletic on loan for the rest of the season
-
Omari Hutchinson 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined AC Milan on loan for the rest of the season
-
Morato 0% chance
Defender · Has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the season
-
Nicolò Savona 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dilane Bakwa 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lille on loan for the rest of the season
Manchester City
9 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.45 · 13th | (better) 2.10 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.95 · 2nd | 1.45 · 9th |
| xGD / match | +0.50 · 6th | (better) +0.65 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.72 · 3rd | (better) 1.87 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.55 | +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester City clean sheet
- 21%
- Manchester City 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Nottingham Forest
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Manchester City
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.