Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeAston Villa 1:2 Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Nottingham Forest won 2–1. The biggest difference was Nottingham Forest's attack: 2.28 xG against 1.15 projected (+1.13). Aston Villa produced 0.82 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.65).
Goals
- 46' Liam Delap Nottingham Forest · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
- 74' Alysson Aston Villa · 0.07 xG chance 1–1
- 88' Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest · 0.13 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Aston Villa
- 43%
- Draw
- 30%
- Nottingham Forest
- 27% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Nottingham Forest produced 1.13 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 22
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 6
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.75
- 1.65
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.26
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for Aston Villa and 1.92 for Nottingham Forest.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.75 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Aston Villa
- Nottingham Forest
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.66 xGA
- D 1.44 created, 1.79 conceded against Burnley
- W 1.85 created, 1.43 conceded against Liverpool
- W 1.77 created, 1.34 conceded against Manchester City
- L 0.29 created, 3.77 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 0.33 created, 1.04 conceded against Arsenal
- D 1.93 created, 0.57 conceded against Hull City
1.43 xG created 1.71 xGA
- D 1.10 created, 1.48 conceded against Newcastle United
- L 1.88 created, 4.57 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 0.66 created, 0.47 conceded against Leeds United
- D 2.30 created, 1.75 conceded against Liverpool
- D 0.92 created, 1.06 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.40 | +3.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 42.8% | 43.2% | −0.4 pp | 2.33 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 28.0% | +2.3 pp | 3.30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 26.9% | 28.8% | −2.0 pp | 3.72 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to score | 79.6% | 76.6% | +3.0 pp | 1.26 |
| Aston Villa not to score | 20.4% | 23.4% | −3.0 pp | 4.91 |
| Nottingham Forest to score | 71.1% | 68.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.41 |
| Nottingham Forest not to score | 28.9% | 31.3% | −2.3 pp | 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 54.7% | +3.7 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.6% | 45.3% | −3.7 pp | 2.40 |
| Aston Villa 2+ goals | 44.5% | 44.3% | +0.3 pp | 2.25 |
| Aston Villa at most 1 goal | 55.5% | 55.7% | −0.3 pp | 1.80 |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 32.3% | 35.5% | −3.2 pp | 3.10 |
| Nottingham Forest at most 1 goal | 67.7% | 64.5% | +3.2 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | 74.5% | +3.4 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 25.5% | −3.4 pp | 4.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 50.0% | −0.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 50.0% | +0.1 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.