Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
13d 15h to kick-offManchester City – Ipswich Town
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Manchester City
- 55%
- Draw
- 25%
- Ipswich Town
- 20%
| Manchester City | Draw | Ipswich Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.81 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
- Total goals
- 3.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Manchester City
55% Manchester City to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 19th
- Manchester City attack v Ipswich Town defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 11th
- Manchester City defence v Ipswich Town attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.22
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 2.04 – 1.23
- Manchester City v Ipswich Town
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Manchester City
9 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Ipswich Town
10 listed-
Abdul Fatawu 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
George Hirst 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Ben Johnson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Stoke City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jack Taylor 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Chiedozie Ogbene 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lincoln City on loan until January
-
Ali Al Hamadi 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wes Burns 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City permanently
-
Cameron Humphreys 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Huddersfield Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sam Szmodics 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Derby County on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kayne van Oevelen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Manchester City | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 2nd | 1.53 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.45 · 9th | 1.75 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.65 · 3rd | -0.22 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.87 · 2nd | 1.41 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.47 | -0.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester City clean sheet
- 26%
- Manchester City 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.4%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Ipswich Town sample
- 5 matches
- Home xG sample · Manchester City
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Ipswich Town
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.