Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:30
21d 17h to kick-offSunderland – Leeds United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sunderland
- 46%
- Draw
- 29%
- Leeds United
- 25%
| Sunderland | Draw | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.17 | 3.43 | 4.03 |
- Total goals
- 2.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sunderland
46% Sunderland to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 10th
- Sunderland attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 14th
- Sunderland defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.29 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.14
- Sunderland v Leeds United
Squad news
Sunderland
9 listed-
Anthony Patterson 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Wrexham permanently
-
Arthur Masuaku 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Konyaspor permanently
-
Jenson Seelt 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leo Fuhr Hjelde 0% chance
Defender · Has joined KV Mechelen on loan for the rest of the season
-
Simon Adingra 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Ajax on loan for the rest of the season
-
Habib Diarra 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Romaine Mundle 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Brian Brobbey 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Daniel Ballard 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sunderland | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.90 · 5th | 1.56 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.75 · 14th | (better) 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | +0.15 · 9th | (better) +0.29 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.47 · 9th | (better) 1.55 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.29 | +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Sunderland clean sheet
- 29%
- Sunderland 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 2:0
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sunderland sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sunderland
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Leeds United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.