Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeLeeds United 0:0 Crystal Palace
Leeds United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 0–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- Leeds United
- 45%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Crystal Palace
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 12
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.64
- 0.28
- Set-piece xG
- 0.76
- 0.49
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.36 for Leeds United and 0.76 for Crystal Palace.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Leeds United
- Crystal Palace
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.41 xG created 1.83 xGA
- W 0.39 created, 3.06 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.59 created, 2.61 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.47 created, 0.66 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- D 1.43 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
- D 2.49 created, 2.19 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- W 2.08 created, 0.88 conceded against Newcastle United
1.32 xG created 2.06 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to win | 4.75 | +22.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +15.5% | Won |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +11.2% | Won |
| Crystal Palace 2+ goals | 3.25 | +5.9% | Lost |
| Leeds United not to score | 5.50 | +3.2% | Won |
| Crystal Palace to score | 1.44 | +3.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +0.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 44.6% | 55.4% | −10.8 pp | 2.24 |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.5% | +5.1 pp | 3.38 |
| Crystal Palace | 25.8% | 20.1% | +5.7 pp | 3.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United to score | 81.2% | 82.8% | −1.6 pp | 1.23 |
| Leeds United not to score | 18.8% | 17.2% | +1.6 pp | 5.33 |
| Crystal Palace to score | 71.4% | 64.5% | +6.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Crystal Palace not to score | 28.6% | 35.5% | −6.8 pp | 3.49 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 54.7% | +5.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.3% | 45.3% | −5.0 pp | 2.48 |
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 47.1% | 55.7% | −8.7 pp | 2.12 |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 52.9% | 44.3% | +8.7 pp | 1.89 |
| Crystal Palace 2+ goals | 32.6% | 29.1% | +3.5 pp | 3.07 |
| Crystal Palace at most 1 goal | 67.4% | 70.9% | −3.5 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | 78.0% | +1.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.7% | 22.0% | −1.3 pp | 4.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 54.9% | −2.9 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 45.1% | +2.9 pp | 2.08 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.